NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	6.2 [596]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +27.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	88		Comeback	1.4 [825]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -10.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Webber	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.00	8	68%	0.18	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.04
Rasheed Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	59%	0.10	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	80%	0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	13	50%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	14	41%	0.04	5	-0.15	4	75%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	8	37%	-0.05	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.21,0.2,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.15	-0.01	21	63%	0.38	3	-0.10	9	67%	-0.03
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.10	-0.01	4	75%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	8	72%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	14	53%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.7	3.4	27.5	19.6	26.4	3.6	42.2	155.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +42.3%

DET -8.8%

CLE +0.7%

CLE +12.7%

CLE +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CLE	NBA	DET	CLE	NBA
this game	17.4	17.6	15.4	100.0	106.0	104.5
season	16.8	16.0		106.1	103.2
opponent	15.6	15.7		99.6	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.6	17.4	19.2	15.2	17.4
CLE	15.1	19.6	16.0	19.9	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	33	32	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.02	10	-16	26	16.4	18.0	-1.61	19.6	16.3	3.37
Antonio McDyess	49	49	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-7	8	17.1	17.7	-0.52	18.4	16.3	2.18
Jason Maxiell	5	5	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-2	-2	14.4	17.5	-3.15	15.6	17.7	-2.08
Carlos Delfino	6	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-3	0	19.8	17.2	2.68	18.6	17.5	1.11
Chris Webber	47	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-2	-2	17.8	16.7	1.12	17.6	17.5	0.17
Tayshaun Prince	76	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-3	0	17.2	19.8	-2.68	17.5	18.6	-1.11
Chauncey Billups	65	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	-1	-4	17.0	18.6	-1.56	17.0	19.7	-2.64
Rasheed Wallace	63	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	-1	-4	17.4	17.2	0.19	17.0	19.8	-2.78
Richard Hamilton	66	67	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.28	-17	11	-28	18.2	14.1	4.09	17.1	19.6	-2.49

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	58	57	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-8	22	17.1	18.7	-1.61	17.8	16.2	1.60
Sasha Pavlovic	65	64	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.24	14	-8	22	16.4	21.8	-5.39	18.4	13.6	4.80
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	63	63	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-5	16	17.5	17.7	-0.19	18.3	14.2	4.16
LeBron James	80	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.35	6	0	6	17.4	21.7	-4.27	17.3	20.0	-2.75
Daniel Gibson	50	50	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	3	0	19.0	15.3	3.74	15.6	20.1	-4.54
Larry Hughes	38	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	7	-8	16.8	18.2	-1.41	19.8	15.3	4.53
Anderson Varejao	25	24	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.04	-2	8	-10	16.8	17.9	-1.02	16.3	17.8	-1.44
Damon Jones	16	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	10	-14	20.2	16.9	3.34	13.4	18.3	-4.87
Donyell Marshall	20	20	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.11	-11	17	-28	20.0	16.8	3.22	14.1	18.4	-4.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.96,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 81, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	92.9%
UTA 88, CHA 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.67,0.61,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.72,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.91,1,1	92.6%
UTA 80, SAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.96,1	92.5%