NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	88		Excitement	7.9 [286]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +22.1%
Phoenix Suns	85		Comeback	11.2 [151]		LVP	Leandro Barbosa (PHX): -41.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.22	-0.01	0.23	-0.00	10	45%	0.26	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.04	0.01	10	54%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	14	54%	0.09	1	-0.03	11	64%	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,-0.12,-0.05	0.06	-0.13	-0.02	15	67%	0.41	5	-0.46	9	100%	0.13
Tony Parker	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	13	39%	-0.01	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.02	0.01	16	67%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	64%	0.09	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	13	48%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Pat Burke	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	45%	0.05	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.1,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	19	45%	-0.05	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.05
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.41,-0.41	-0.41	-0.15	-0.28	-0.01	12	31%	-0.18	4	-0.23	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.5	32.3	19.4	26.4	3.6	44.2	155.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +61.2%

SAS +6.0%

PHX -15.8%

PHX -6.7%

SAS +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	16.3	15.8	15.4	97.8	95.5	104.5
season	16.2	13.8		107.5	112.2
opponent	16.0	15.4		105.0	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.5	17.6	18.0	12.0	16.3
PHX	15.0	16.7	14.0	17.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	74	73	1.09	-0.59	1.68	0.41	23	-20	43	16.3	16.7	-0.49	16.1	14.4	1.70
Michael Finley	72	70	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.42	11	-8	19	15.9	18.1	-2.21	15.4	17.4	-1.95
Bruce Bowen	76	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-1	5	16.3	16.6	-0.35	16.1	14.0	2.12
Manu Ginobili	71	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	1	1	15.8	18.4	-2.63	15.7	16.5	-0.79
Fabricio Oberto	23	22	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.00	10	-7	17	18.8	15.5	3.28	17.6	15.2	2.40
Tim Duncan	76	75	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.35	-4	7	-11	16.4	16.1	0.24	15.7	16.8	-1.13
Matt Bonner	6	5	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	2	-1	20.0	16.1	3.92	15.2	15.9	-0.67
Brent Barry	29	28	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	7	-11	16.6	16.2	0.41	16.0	15.8	0.19
Francisco Elson	10	10	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.12	-11	14	-25	17.1	16.2	0.85	15.2	15.9	-0.71
Jacque Vaughn	13	13	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	0.06	-17	20	-37	15.2	16.5	-1.30	13.9	16.2	-2.23

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	68	67	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.08	4	-7	11	15.9	15.6	0.34	16.6	15.7	0.87
Pat Burke	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-3	3	17.2	15.8	1.49	19.8	16.1	3.66
James Jones	51	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.56	8	-11	19	16.7	14.6	2.09	15.2	18.1	-2.85
Raja Bell	87	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.42	-3	0	-3	15.8	16.5	-0.68	16.3	17.3	-1.02
Steve Nash	86	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	0	-3	15.7	20.3	-4.66	16.2	21.7	-5.51
Shawn Marion	86	86	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	2	-7	15.6	22.3	-6.73	16.5	14.0	2.45
Leandro Barbosa	63	64	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.33	-16	13	-29	15.5	16.7	-1.22	17.0	14.8	2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.72,0.67,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 90, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.58,0	91.6%
NJN 89, MIL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.79,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.42,0	91.2%
DET 93, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.73,0	91.0%