NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	7.6 [302]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DET): +21.9%
Denver Nuggets	90		Comeback	10.0 [70]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -21.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.22	0.08	0.14	-0.00	9	65%	0.32	1	-0.10	8	100%	0.15
Tayshaun Prince	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,-0.12,0.1	0.01	0.10	0.01	15	53%	0.17	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Jason Maxiell	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.01	4	64%	0.10	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Allen Iverson	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	18	49%	0.06	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	4	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Bynum	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	9	41%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.2,0.17	0.17	0.19	-0.02	0.00	19	67%	0.30	1	-0.13	7	100%	0.04
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	6	75%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	7	58%	0.08	2	-0.05	12	75%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.03	3	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	6	7%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	15	44%	-0.06	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.21	-0.21	-0.07	-0.15	-0.01	13	33%	0.02	1	-0.23	7	71%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	30.6	15.5	30.4	2.3	44.0	148.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +16.3%

DEN -0.5%

DET +15.4%

DET +18.0%

DET +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	17.5	15.3	15.5	108.1	100.0	106.4
season	16.9	14.4		104.9	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.2	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	20.2	17.8	15.6	16.8	17.5
DEN	16.0	12.9	16.3	16.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	39	40	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.42	11	-8	19	17.1	17.9	-0.80	14.4	16.0	-1.61
Antonio McDyess	43	44	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.46	5	-2	7	17.4	17.6	-0.19	14.5	16.0	-1.54
Jason Maxiell	38	40	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.58	-2	5	-7	17.9	17.2	0.64	15.2	15.3	-0.12
Tayshaun Prince	74	78	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.42	3	0	3	17.3	19.1	-1.83	15.7	12.4	3.29
Allen Iverson	75	80	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.47	1	2	-1	17.4	18.2	-0.77	15.5	13.3	2.21
Walter Herrmann	18	17	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	-3	9	16.7	17.7	-1.00	12.1	16.0	-3.88
Will Bynum	7	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.02	-3	6	-9	19.4	17.3	2.09	15.7	15.2	0.44
Amir Johnson	39	42	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.18	2	1	1	17.7	17.4	0.33	15.6	15.0	0.66
Kwame Brown	41	43	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.03	-4	7	-11	17.7	17.3	0.42	16.5	14.2	2.29
Rodney Stuckey	56	57	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.08	-4	7	-11	17.8	16.9	0.94	15.3	15.2	0.13

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	35	33	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.16	1	-4	5	14.6	15.7	-1.09	19.6	16.2	3.35
Linas Kleiza	67	62	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.22	11	-14	25	14.7	17.0	-2.27	17.9	16.5	1.46
J.R. Smith	48	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.30	7	-10	17	15.1	15.4	-0.26	18.6	16.1	2.47
Anthony Carter	42	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-2	1	14.3	16.1	-1.88	17.9	17.2	0.71
Kenyon Martin	74	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.56	2	-5	7	15.6	13.7	1.92	16.9	20.0	-3.15
Dahntay Jones	54	52	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.17	-15	12	-27	16.1	14.1	2.02	16.6	19.0	-2.41
Nene	66	66	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.42	-11	8	-19	15.5	14.5	1.05	17.1	18.8	-1.74
Chauncey Billups	64	63	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.48	-11	8	-19	15.6	14.4	1.24	16.6	20.0	-3.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 106, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.72,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.67,0.84,0	92.5%
MIN 102, ORL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.93,0.77,0.63,0	92.0%
SAC 103, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.81,0.84,0.42,0	91.9%