NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Excitement	8.5 [172]		MVP	Ryan Gomes (MIN): +48.5%
Orlando Magic	101		Comeback	56.8 [2]		LVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): -33.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0.48	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,0.48	-0.04	0.54	0.01	14	44%	0.54	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.20
Rashad McCants	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.38,0.38	0.15	0.21	-0.01	10	95%	0.43	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Michael Doleac	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Marko Jaric	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Randy Foye	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.09	0.09	-0.16	0.02	21	57%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Snyder	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.34	-0.03	-0.31	-0.00	19	43%	-0.32	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.17	0.06	0.02	9	94%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	15	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	6	64%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	13	57%	0.14	5	-0.12	9	44%	-0.06
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	3	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.15	-0.02	18	52%	-0.07	4	-0.08	8	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	29.3	14.8	26.1	2.5	32.3	133.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -54.0%

MIN +77.1%

MIN +37.2%

ORL -9.2%

ORL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	15.4	108.5	108.6	105.7
season	15.9	15.1		102.2	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.0		104.6	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.4	17.3	16.2	16.0	16.2
ORL	13.4	14.7	14.4	16.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Gomes	76	77	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.44	15	-14	29	16.4	15.3	1.16	14.7	14.2	0.47
Al Jefferson	67	69	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.44	12	-11	23	17.0	14.3	2.74	15.2	12.8	2.41
Randy Foye	87	87	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.46	8	-7	15	16.2	16.0	0.23	14.9	10.3	4.54
Corey Brewer	59	57	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.50	0	1	-1	16.4	15.9	0.48	14.6	14.5	0.13
Rashad McCants	58	57	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.52	-2	3	-5	16.9	15.1	1.74	14.4	14.8	-0.37
Michael Doleac	5	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	2	-3	11.6	16.5	-4.87	13.0	14.7	-1.65
Marko Jaric	46	46	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.07	-3	4	-7	15.0	17.4	-2.33	14.1	15.1	-1.02
Chris Richard	22	20	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.03	-10	11	-21	14.9	16.6	-1.76	12.7	15.1	-2.33
Kirk Snyder	50	48	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	0.04	-14	15	-29	16.0	16.5	-0.54	14.5	14.6	-0.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	15	16	0.31	-0.81	1.13	-0.01	11	-12	23	15.2	14.5	0.74	18.8	15.7	3.13
Keith Bogans	40	43	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.03	9	-10	19	13.7	15.3	-1.59	15.4	16.9	-1.51
Carlos Arroyo	32	34	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.04	5	-6	11	13.5	15.1	-1.65	16.2	16.2	0.04
Maurice Evans	60	59	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.28	-7	6	-13	14.7	14.3	0.48	16.7	15.4	1.25
Hedo Turkoglu	72	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.72	16	-17	33	14.2	15.8	-1.53	16.0	17.2	-1.25
Jameer Nelson	61	60	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.51	-6	5	-11	15.1	13.5	1.65	16.2	16.2	-0.04
Rashard Lewis	81	80	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.53	-7	6	-13	14.8	13.1	1.72	16.1	16.6	-0.42
Dwight Howard	78	78	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.46	-12	11	-23	14.5	15.2	-0.74	15.7	18.8	-3.13
Keyon Dooling	26	25	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.47	-14	13	-27	15.8	14.1	1.76	17.5	15.8	1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.93,0.77,0.63,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 106, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.83,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.78,0.73,0	92.8%
NYK 90, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.58,0	92.2%
DET 93, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.73,0	92.0%