NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	83		Excitement	5.3 [776]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +27.8%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	1.1 [1101]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -16.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.28	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.22	0.11	0.05	17	77%	0.30	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	11	44%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Tony Delk	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	15	53%	0.04	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	6	56%	0.02	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	1	17%	-0.09	1	-0.03	10	20%	-0.13
Tayshaun Prince	-0.16	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	7	21%	-0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.21	0.07	0.04	17	78%	0.36	4	-0.12	11	82%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	15	67%	0.21	4	-0.10	10	50%	-0.07
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	87%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.03	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	11	50%	0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	7	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.8	34.5	18.8	28.6	4.5	39.5	156.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.7%

MIA +2.3%

MIA +8.5%

DET -2.5%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	16.6	15.6	96.5	114.0	104.4
season	16.9	15.5		108.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		102.3	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.1	17.0	15.8	15.5	16.8
MIA	14.5	16.4	16.9	18.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Delk	17	17	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-17	19	17.7	16.6	1.07	17.0	16.6	0.45
Carlos Delfino	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	18.5	16.8	1.73	12.0	16.9	-4.87
Antonio McDyess	41	40	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.14	-7	-8	1	17.1	16.6	0.57	16.2	17.0	-0.78
Lindsey Hunter	10	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-10	5	17.8	16.7	1.08	16.3	16.7	-0.38
Dale Davis	9	7	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	-5	-5	18.0	16.7	1.29	13.0	17.0	-3.96
Rasheed Wallace	61	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-11	7	16.8	17.1	-0.33	17.1	15.3	1.82
Chauncey Billups	80	81	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.12	-9	-6	-3	16.6	19.7	-3.03	16.9	11.8	5.14
Ben Wallace	61	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	-6	-3	16.6	17.5	-0.95	16.8	16.2	0.66
Richard Hamilton	65	64	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	3	-21	16.7	17.2	-0.45	16.2	17.9	-1.64
Tayshaun Prince	82	82	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	0	-15	16.8	18.5	-1.73	16.9	12.0	4.87

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	68	69	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.01	19	-4	23	17.0	15.3	1.72	16.5	18.2	-1.65
Dwyane Wade	78	79	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.02	19	-4	23	16.2	20.5	-4.26	16.8	17.6	-0.79
Shaquille O'Neal	66	66	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.21	7	8	-1	16.6	16.8	-0.27	17.1	16.1	0.91
Gary Payton	50	51	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	3	9	16.7	16.5	0.19	16.9	16.8	0.13
Udonis Haslem	64	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	6	3	16.3	17.5	-1.22	17.1	16.0	1.08
James Posey	48	47	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	6	3	17.3	15.8	1.43	16.1	17.7	-1.54
Jason Williams	40	39	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.12	2	13	-11	17.0	16.3	0.63	17.1	16.6	0.51
Alonzo Mourning	12	12	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	14	-13	14.1	17.1	-2.97	18.8	16.5	2.31
Derek Anderson	4	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	18	-21	20.0	16.5	3.52	14.0	17.0	-2.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.8,0.72,0.59,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 98, CHA 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.92,0.93,0.95,1,0.97,0.96,1	94.0%
UTA 92, POR 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.8,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,0.98,1	94.0%
MEM 73, IND 76	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.75,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.98,1	93.7%