NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	100		Excitement	2.3 [1288]		MVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): +14.0%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.1 [574]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -8.9%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.01	-0.06	17	65%	0.14	3	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.00	0.02	11	74%	0.13	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.00	-0.06	15	55%	0.10	4	-0.03	19	79%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.01	-0.06	8	61%	0.07	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Lamond Murray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	10	36%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Collins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	83%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	19	47%	0.06	0	0.00	15	60%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.09	13	46%	0.06	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	3	83%	0.02	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	30%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	6	42%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	0.00	-0.08	7	29%	-0.01	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	0.07	12	53%	-0.03	4	-0.06	14	57%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	3.5	33.3	19.7	30.1	3.5	39.2	160.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +33.2%

NJN +7.5%

NJN +0.1%

NJN +8.3%

NJN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	14.6	15.6	105.3	91.7	104.4
season	15.7	15.5		102.1	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.7		102.3	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	13.5	15.8	15.5	17.5	15.6
MIA	14.7	14.2	18.0	12.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	80	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.17	24	-12	36	14.9	19.0	-4.09	14.9	13.2	1.73
Jason Kidd	87	86	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.13	12	0	12	15.5	16.4	-0.89	14.6	15.0	-0.44
Nenad Krstic	54	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.13	20	-8	28	14.5	16.9	-2.37	14.6	14.6	0.03
Richard Jefferson	47	48	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.01	12	0	12	15.0	16.1	-1.10	14.2	15.0	-0.87
Jason Collins	49	50	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	6	0	15.9	15.2	0.66	14.2	15.1	-0.89
Lamond Murray	64	64	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.30	-4	16	-20	16.9	12.8	4.04	14.8	14.2	0.58
Clifford Robinson	37	37	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	11	-10	15.5	15.6	-0.16	15.4	14.1	1.22
John Thomas	32	32	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	12	-12	15.4	15.7	-0.28	14.4	14.7	-0.34
Antoine Wright	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	24.0	15.5	8.53	7.5	14.8	-7.26
Jacque Vaughn	24	27	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.31	-11	23	-34	17.2	15.0	2.26	14.7	14.6	0.14

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	19	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-11	10	17.6	13.9	3.77	15.5	15.6	-0.11
Derek Anderson	32	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.27	7	-19	26	11.5	16.2	-4.70	17.3	14.7	2.62
Alonzo Mourning	13	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-8	4	16.9	14.2	2.68	14.4	15.7	-1.31
Gary Payton	45	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-14	16	15.3	14.0	1.33	16.5	14.7	1.81
James Posey	49	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-7	2	15.8	13.4	2.35	14.4	16.7	-2.26
Udonis Haslem	51	52	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-11	10	14.5	14.7	-0.24	16.6	14.3	2.25
Shaquille O'Neal	61	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-6	0	13.5	16.5	-2.92	15.8	15.2	0.58
Jason Williams	64	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.04	-12	0	-12	14.3	15.2	-0.87	14.7	17.2	-2.46
Dwyane Wade	81	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.08	-14	2	-16	14.6	14.5	0.08	15.6	15.5	0.07
Antoine Walker	65	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.23	-26	14	-40	14.8	14.2	0.61	14.9	16.9	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 100, PHI 77	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
OKC 138, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
CLE 135, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%