NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	119		Excitement	10.5 [57]		MVP	Brent Barry (SAS): +66.0%
San Antonio Spurs	128		Comeback	10.4 [166]		LVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): -42.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39	0.15	0.24	-0.00	19	66%	0.41	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.06
Kevin Martin	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.11	0.02	15	65%	0.26	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.10
Kenny Thomas	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.01	8	60%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Francisco Garcia	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.09	-0.09	0.01	17	67%	0.18	3	-0.19	8	50%	-0.14
Jason Hart	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	8	39%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.43	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.35,-0.29,-0.32,-0.4,-0.43,-0.43	-0.17	-0.27	-0.01	16	35%	-0.14	5	-0.28	11	82%	0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66	0.66	0.20	0.46	0.00	12	85%	0.66	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.28,0.34,0.33	0.33	0.20	0.13	-0.00	20	62%	0.33	0	0.00	12	75%	-0.07
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.10	0.02	8	67%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	2	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.00	5	92%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	10	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.05	0.04	16	56%	0.16	7	-0.21	7	86%	-0.03
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	5	23%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	29.7	3.5	31.5	19.7	32.0	3.8	46.0	1.6	23.2	191.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +68.2%

SAS +0.5%

SAC -55.8%

SAS +44.0%

SAC -6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	15.2	15.6	113.3	123.1	104.4
season	15.3	16.3		104.7	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		99.4	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	13.7	15.5	14.8	19.1	11.9	15.2
SAS	18.4	15.1	14.0	15.2	12.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bonzi Wells	84	84	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.33	-2	-7	5	16.0	12.2	3.75	15.8	12.6	3.21
Kenny Thomas	72	73	0.21	-0.71	0.93	0.30	-3	-6	3	16.5	12.4	4.10	16.0	13.3	2.71
Kevin Martin	77	78	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-14	19	15.5	14.5	1.01	15.6	14.0	1.64
Brad Miller	56	54	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-11	13	14.3	16.3	-2.08	15.2	15.2	-0.05
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	68	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-4	-1	15.5	14.8	0.66	15.2	15.2	0.00
Francisco Garcia	7	8	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-9	9	14.1	15.3	-1.17	13.4	15.3	-1.97
Jason Hart	37	34	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.41	-8	-1	-7	14.6	15.6	-0.91	14.7	15.4	-0.77
Mike Bibby	98	98	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.27	-16	7	-23	15.0	18.4	-3.42	14.8	21.0	-6.16

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	75	74	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.28	19	-10	29	14.9	16.0	-1.17	14.3	17.5	-3.14
Tony Parker	87	88	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.36	15	-6	21	14.5	18.8	-4.27	14.9	16.9	-2.03
Tim Duncan	70	73	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.15	14	-5	19	14.2	17.2	-2.99	14.8	16.2	-1.37
Michael Finley	57	58	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.05	17	-8	25	14.9	15.6	-0.74	15.9	14.4	1.55
Nazr Mohammed	46	46	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	7	-5	15.7	14.8	0.86	15.8	14.8	0.93
Brent Barry	49	51	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.13	-2	11	-13	14.6	15.7	-1.14	15.9	14.6	1.25
Rasho Nesterovic	27	25	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.07	-1	10	-11	17.4	14.4	2.99	14.8	15.4	-0.63
Robert Horry	39	38	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.22	-8	17	-25	16.0	14.7	1.29	15.4	15.1	0.25
Bruce Bowen	53	55	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.10	-5	14	-19	15.7	14.6	1.07	15.4	15.1	0.30
Nick Van Exel	17	17	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.13	-6	15	-21	18.8	14.5	4.27	16.9	14.9	2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.53,0.34,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.27,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.84,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 90, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.43,0.34,0.08,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.73,1	88.9%
POR 96, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.35,0.53,0.4,0.54,0.32,0.08,0.46,0.45,0.64,0.68,0.98,1	87.9%
CLE 77, DAL 84	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.4,0.69,0.54,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.77,0.84,1	87.9%