NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	90		Excitement	12.1 [15]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +23.1%
New Jersey Nets	92		Comeback	19.0 [66]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (NJN): -76.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.23	0.08	0.15	-0.00	12	72%	0.29	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.07	-0.01	0.11	0.03	15	61%	0.18	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02
Danny Manning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	19	40%	-0.02	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.10	-0.19	0.00	3	37%	-0.04	4	-0.25	2	50%	-0.03
Darvin Ham	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.36	-0.08	-0.27	-0.00	3	25%	-0.15	2	-0.20	2	0%	-0.05
Ray Allen	-0.68	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.28,-0.28,-0.39,-0.46,-0.37,-0.52,-0.52,-0.52,-0.52,-0.68,-0.68	-0.22	-0.45	0.01	20	25%	-0.41	4	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.03	0.17	0.00	6	44%	0.14	0	0.00	6	83%	0.11
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	6	86%	0.17	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	16	71%	0.21	5	-0.12	6	83%	0.05
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	5	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.32	-0.32	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	11	17%	-0.27	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.09
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.24,-0.3,-0.36,-0.36,-0.43,-0.65,-0.76	-0.76	-0.22	-0.55	-0.00	22	40%	-0.42	8	-0.34	3	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	19.4	2.4	24.6	14.7	27.6	2.0	38.0	1.6	18.2	148.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	1.7	18.2	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -21.8%

NJN +36.5%

MIL -4.3%

NJN +38.8%

NJN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NJN	NBA	MIL	NJN	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	15.2	90.0	89.3	101.7
season	14.9	15.5		105.5	102.1
opponent	14.7	15.4		103.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	15.4	16.7	15.2	17.2	13.9	15.9
NJN	15.9	14.6	14.2	15.5	18.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	34	35	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.13	1	-3	4	17.5	15.1	2.39	16.3	15.0	1.32
Rafer Alston	10	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	0	-2	18.1	15.7	2.42	15.1	15.5	-0.35
Ervin Johnson	48	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-1	0	16.2	15.6	0.59	14.9	15.9	-0.95
Scott Williams	39	38	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	2	-6	16.1	15.8	0.22	15.4	15.4	0.05
Tim Thomas	60	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.48	7	-9	16	14.5	18.0	-3.42	14.8	16.4	-1.64
Glenn Robinson	88	89	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	0	-2	16.2	14.1	2.09	15.8	12.7	3.13
Sam Cassell	90	93	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.47	0	-2	2	15.7	18.1	-2.42	15.5	15.1	0.35
Darvin Ham	46	49	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	1	-4	16.2	15.7	0.43	15.8	15.1	0.76
Ray Allen	85	88	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.61	-6	4	-10	15.6	17.5	-1.90	15.1	17.1	-1.93

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephon Marbury	86	83	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.61	6	-4	10	15.0	17.7	-2.74	15.6	17.3	-1.66
Keith Van Horn	75	74	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.53	6	-4	10	15.5	15.1	0.38	16.1	15.3	0.88
Kendall Gill	68	66	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.55	5	-3	8	15.1	16.0	-0.84	16.3	15.3	0.99
Kerry Kittles	52	52	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	-3	8	15.2	15.6	-0.38	16.7	15.1	1.53
Jamie Feick	63	60	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.34	-3	5	-8	15.7	15.0	0.64	15.1	17.2	-2.13
Lucious Harris	51	48	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	5	-8	15.6	15.2	0.38	15.1	16.7	-1.53
Jim McIlvaine	35	36	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	-2	6	15.5	15.4	0.10	17.0	15.3	1.64
Scott Burrell	33	30	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	5	-8	14.6	15.8	-1.15	15.8	16.0	-0.17
Johnny Newman	35	34	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.11	-3	5	-8	16.0	15.1	0.84	15.3	16.3	-0.99
Elliot Perry	17	17	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.17	-4	6	-10	17.7	15.0	2.74	17.3	15.6	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.43,0.34,0.08,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 111, LAL 116	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.09,0.08,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.58,1	91.4%
DAL 98, MIL 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.32,0.29,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.09,0.12,0.05,0.16,0.32,0.16,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.92,1	90.5%
POR 115, PHX 118	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.64,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.47,0.36,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.46,0.14,0.26,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.83,0.95,1	90.2%