NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	3.8 [1071]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +10.7%
Chicago Bulls	96		Comeback	1.0 [646]		LVP	Jason Williams (MIA): -9.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	12	72%	0.13	2	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
James Posey	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	0.00	0.04	10	82%	0.10	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.05	7	74%	0.06	1	0.00	9	100%	0.03
Gary Payton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	6	64%	0.08	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	24	54%	0.09	4	-0.06	8	50%	-0.05
Antoine Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	0.00	-0.03	6	0%	-0.06	2	-0.04	1	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	0.00	0.04	10	80%	0.10	2	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Schenscher	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Sweetney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	17	53%	0.05	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.07	6	59%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	18	47%	0.03	4	-0.06	9	56%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.7	30.2	19.4	34.8	3.5	32.7	151.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.5%

MIA +1.9%

MIA +21.6%

MIA +0.3%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	17.4	13.7	15.6	121.5	104.3	104.4
season	15.5	14.4		106.1	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.5		102.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	19.1	14.3	20.1	17.4
CHI	16.7	14.5	12.9	11.2	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	70	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.02	16	1	15	17.5	17.0	0.53	14.3	12.1	2.17
Dwyane Wade	73	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	1	15	17.3	17.6	-0.32	13.5	14.5	-0.97
Shaquille O'Neal	74	74	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.06	12	5	7	17.7	16.2	1.49	13.6	14.1	-0.49
James Posey	63	62	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.02	10	7	3	18.1	16.0	2.11	13.2	14.8	-1.61
Jason Williams	44	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	5	7	16.8	17.9	-1.14	14.3	13.2	1.05
Gary Payton	61	61	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	10	-3	17.9	16.5	1.32	13.4	14.4	-0.96
Udonis Haslem	65	65	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.06	10	7	3	16.2	20.1	-3.93	13.5	14.3	-0.77
Alonzo Mourning	7	6	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	14	-11	17.7	17.4	0.34	16.5	13.5	2.98
Derek Anderson	8	7	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	18	-19	17.9	17.4	0.52	15.1	13.6	1.54

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Piatkowski	13	12	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-21	25	13.5	13.8	-0.30	17.3	17.4	-0.07
Luke Schenscher	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	11.0	13.7	-2.75	19.0	17.4	1.62
Michael Sweetney	20	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-14	11	12.1	14.2	-2.07	19.0	16.9	2.01
Jannero Pargo	16	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.08	-1	-16	15	12.8	13.9	-1.10	19.7	16.9	2.77
Malik Allen	46	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-14	11	14.2	13.2	0.96	16.4	18.4	-2.03
Chris Duhon	40	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	-14	11	14.0	13.5	0.50	16.8	17.8	-1.05
Luol Deng	79	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-9	1	13.2	16.7	-3.46	17.6	15.9	1.71
Tyson Chandler	32	33	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.11	-17	0	-17	15.3	12.9	2.45	17.9	17.1	0.84
Andres Nocioni	63	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.12	-18	1	-19	13.7	13.7	0.09	17.3	17.6	-0.25
Ben Gordon	71	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.12	-19	2	-21	13.8	13.5	0.25	17.1	18.5	-1.38
Kirk Hinrich	79	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.04	-17	0	-17	13.7	13.6	0.12	17.3	18.0	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.3,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 101, CHA 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
NJN 109, NYK 101	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0	96.2%
PHI 83, BOS 67	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%