NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	106		Excitement	8.2 [235]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +31.9%
Miami Heat	111		Comeback	2.1 [768]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -13.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.17	0.12	-0.03	23	66%	0.38	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.09
Tyson Chandler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Malik Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.04	4	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Andres Nocioni	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	20	45%	0.05	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.14,-0.13	0.01	-0.12	0.02	14	59%	0.07	4	-0.21	4	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.17,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.14,0.24,0.23	0.23	0.01	0.22	0.00	21	52%	0.35	4	-0.11	16	87%	0.08
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	6	71%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.04	-0.03	16	67%	0.25	6	-0.15	8	62%	-0.06
Jason Williams	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.02	9	68%	0.09	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	71%	0.04	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	13	34%	-0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.8	32.2	17.5	28.4	3.6	41.2	151.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -9.8%

MIA +29.2%

MIA +13.3%

MIA +11.7%

MIA +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	13.7	14.7	15.6	105.0	108.8	104.4
season	14.4	15.5		102.6	106.1
opponent	15.5	16.1		102.3	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.1	15.0	13.4	12.2	13.7
MIA	14.1	11.6	15.4	17.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	47	48	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-6	7	13.8	13.6	0.18	14.0	15.3	-1.32
Eric Piatkowski	7	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-4	3	8.4	14.1	-5.68	7.8	15.1	-7.25
Othella Harrington	7	6	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-1	-3	17.9	13.4	4.45	12.5	14.8	-2.29
Malik Allen	45	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-10	15	13.0	14.2	-1.21	14.8	14.5	0.34
Michael Sweetney	28	29	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	1	-7	14.7	13.3	1.39	14.1	14.9	-0.82
Ben Gordon	94	96	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-5	5	13.4	18.1	-4.76	14.7	13.3	1.41
Andres Nocioni	87	89	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-4	3	13.6	14.4	-0.83	15.2	11.2	4.01
Chris Duhon	56	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.31	-4	-1	-3	13.4	14.1	-0.68	14.3	15.1	-0.74
Tyson Chandler	57	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	5	-15	14.2	13.0	1.22	14.3	15.1	-0.85
Kirk Hinrich	77	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.33	-5	0	-5	14.1	12.3	1.81	15.7	11.2	4.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	91	89	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.47	10	-5	15	14.4	17.2	-2.83	13.9	12.0	1.94
Dwyane Wade	93	92	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.34	6	-1	7	15.1	10.1	4.99	13.9	12.0	1.88
Shandon Anderson	30	29	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-7	19	12.3	15.6	-3.34	12.7	14.1	-1.48
Shaquille O'Neal	75	75	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.33	0	5	-5	16.3	10.1	6.18	14.0	13.0	0.96
Gary Payton	53	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.40	-6	11	-17	16.0	13.2	2.76	13.2	14.2	-0.99
Michael Doleac	18	18	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	-1	7	10.1	15.6	-5.59	14.3	13.6	0.76
Jason Williams	74	74	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.07	0	5	-5	13.9	16.6	-2.64	13.4	14.6	-1.25
Udonis Haslem	32	32	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	3	-1	14.6	14.7	-0.09	14.9	13.2	1.70
James Posey	44	44	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	10	-15	14.7	14.6	0.12	13.2	14.1	-0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.74,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.8,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.59,0.42,0.37,0.59,0.6,0.73,0.69,0.79,0.69,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 118, NOP 121	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.72,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.73,0.65,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.67,0.6,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.92,1	92.3%
POR 90, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.61,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.77,0.92,1	91.8%
CHH 82, TOR 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.72,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.43,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.71,0.55,0.92,1	91.6%