NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	7.5 [356]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +19.0%
Phoenix Suns	108		Comeback	4.0 [158]		LVP	Shawn Marion (PHX): -4.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.01	18	63%	0.23	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.01	19	61%	0.20	1	-0.04	11	91%	0.08
Robert Horry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1	-0.00	0.12	0.01	6	71%	0.20	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	20	60%	0.17	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	5	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.06
Beno Udrih	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.01	22	63%	0.22	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.09	0.09	0.06	-0.01	-0.04	23	66%	0.27	5	-0.19	10	90%	0.03
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	13	64%	0.13	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Walter McCarty	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	11	48%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	3.7	35.3	18.8	28.2	4.4	43.4	160.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +12.3%

PHX -2.8%

SAS +13.6%

SAS +15.7%

SAS +11.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	17.4	13.8	15.5	120.7	116.1	104.0
season	16.3	13.5		105.8	112.9
opponent	16.0	15.6		106.2	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.7	17.1	16.3	18.7	17.4
PHX	12.3	12.9	13.1	17.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	66	69	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.54	7	-4	11	18.3	15.0	3.39	13.7	13.9	-0.21
Bruce Bowen	64	65	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	1	1	17.0	18.3	-1.34	14.3	12.6	1.65
Robert Horry	54	54	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	0	3	16.9	18.1	-1.17	14.1	13.2	0.92
Tony Parker	76	75	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.40	3	0	3	16.8	20.3	-3.54	14.1	12.5	1.57
Manu Ginobili	75	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	-1	5	17.0	19.1	-2.05	13.1	16.4	-3.32
Brent Barry	46	48	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.11	-2	5	-7	18.2	16.6	1.65	13.7	13.8	-0.11
Rasho Nesterovic	5	6	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	2	-1	23.2	17.1	6.14	13.8	13.8	0.07
Beno Udrih	16	18	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	3	-3	20.3	16.8	3.54	12.5	14.1	-1.57
Nazr Mohammed	58	55	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.21	-3	6	-9	16.5	18.9	-2.32	13.8	13.7	0.04

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Hunter	57	55	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.12	13	-16	29	14.3	12.9	1.34	18.4	15.9	2.42
Walter McCarty	3	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-3	3	10.7	13.9	-3.20	14.0	17.5	-3.47
Leandro Barbosa	3	2	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-1	-1	20.3	13.5	6.79	17.5	17.4	0.11
Shawn Marion	87	85	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-2	1	13.5	17.3	-3.82	17.3	18.9	-1.59
Steve Nash	90	90	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-2	1	13.5	20.3	-6.79	17.4	17.5	-0.11
Amar'e Stoudemire	81	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	2	-7	13.8	13.3	0.49	17.6	16.2	1.41
Quentin Richardson	71	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.29	-8	5	-13	13.1	15.8	-2.63	16.4	21.2	-4.81
Jim Jackson	73	73	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.47	-11	8	-19	14.3	11.7	2.57	17.7	16.3	1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 104, NJN 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.72,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.38,0.21,0.33,0.26,0	91.7%
PHX 116, BOS 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.46,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.24,0.08,0	91.4%
NJN 84, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.27,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.53,0.39,0.28,0.22,0.17,0	91.4%