NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	98		Excitement	9.3 [116]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +21.3%
Seattle SuperSonics	96		Comeback	2.2 [290]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -19.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.21	-0.13	0.33	-0.02	21	44%	0.28	2	-0.06	17	82%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.11	0.02	8	78%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.00	3	83%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	64%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.00	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.19,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	13	48%	0.10	4	-0.20	3	67%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	6	59%	-0.04	5	-0.16	10	60%	-0.07

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.12	0.00	5	67%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	71%	0.10	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.04
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	10	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	25	50%	0.08	6	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	9	48%	-0.00	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	6	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,-0.08	-0.08	0.05	-0.12	0.01	13	61%	-0.08	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	3.8	35.2	17.6	34.1	3.5	41.5	167.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +44.7%

SAS +15.1%

SEA -15.2%

SAS +0.7%

SAS +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	17.1	15.6	15.5	110.1	110.3	104.0
season	16.3	16.5		105.8	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.6		107.9	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.6	14.0	21.1	16.8	17.1
SEA	15.4	18.7	13.1	15.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	79	77	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.43	5	-3	8	17.3	15.2	2.13	15.9	13.5	2.40
Manu Ginobili	66	68	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	-2	6	17.2	16.7	0.59	15.3	16.6	-1.29
Tim Duncan	71	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	2	-2	17.7	14.7	3.04	16.3	12.4	3.90
Tony Parker	72	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.41	-2	4	-6	16.9	17.7	-0.76	16.0	14.2	1.79
Robert Horry	52	50	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.42	-3	5	-8	16.1	18.4	-2.30	14.6	16.9	-2.31
Nazr Mohammed	52	50	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	-3	8	17.5	16.5	0.94	15.5	15.8	-0.38
Beno Udrih	23	21	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	-2	6	17.0	17.1	-0.18	15.3	15.7	-0.38
Brent Barry	24	23	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	2	-2	15.9	17.5	-1.66	15.2	15.8	-0.61
Devin Brown	4	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	3	-4	17.5	17.1	0.43	11.3	15.8	-4.44
Glenn Robinson	2	2	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	4	-6	16.0	17.1	-1.11	20.0	15.5	4.48

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	21	22	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.03	5	-7	12	12.6	16.6	-4.02	19.3	16.4	2.90
Nick Collison	33	34	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.05	5	-7	12	11.7	18.0	-6.32	17.9	16.6	1.28
Reggie Evans	43	40	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-4	6	17.8	13.5	4.34	17.0	17.1	-0.12
Jerome James	46	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.19	-5	3	-8	17.1	14.0	3.16	17.4	16.7	0.66
Damien Wilkins	52	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	5	-12	15.0	16.6	-1.64	16.5	18.1	-1.66
Luke Ridnour	74	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.48	1	-3	4	15.9	13.9	2.00	17.4	15.4	1.97
Vitaly Potapenko	10	10	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	4	-10	16.4	15.5	0.88	11.8	17.8	-5.96
Ray Allen	80	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	1	-4	15.6	15.7	-0.10	17.2	15.6	1.65
Antonio Daniels	76	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.55	-2	0	-2	16.1	12.4	3.73	16.7	20.1	-3.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.31,0.64,0.31,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 111, CLE 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.31,0.36,0.22,0.04,0	92.1%
ORL 96, DEN 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.72,0.43,0.08,0	90.6%
MIL 106, TOR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.2,0.18,0	90.3%