NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	7.7 [287]		MVP	Derek Strong (ORL): +23.5%
Denver Nuggets	91		Comeback	3.3 [447]		LVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): -19.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Strong	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.05	0.18	-0.00	14	65%	0.28	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Dennis Scott	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,0.13,0.13	0.00	0.13	0.00	6	64%	0.20	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Horace Grant	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	0.01	11	45%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	14	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nick Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Brian Shaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.11	0.01	-0.10	0.02	21	56%	-0.02	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.08

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.02	0.02	5	142%	0.24	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	10	90%	0.27	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	2	60%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	57%	0.02	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.00	7	21%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	7	50%	0.04	3	-0.15	4	100%	0.07
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.01	-0.12	0.00	15	53%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	17	47%	-0.02	3	-0.13	6	67%	-0.03
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	5	17%	-0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	2.6	23.9	15.6	20.5	2.6	31.2	117.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +13.2%

DEN -12.4%

DEN -0.2%

ORL +38.6%

ORL +10.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	17.5	13.8	15.6	104.3	98.9	104.4
season	16.4	15.2		102.9	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.8	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.4	17.5	18.1	19.0	17.5
DEN	14.6	11.3	15.4	14.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	76	77	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.35	8	-3	11	17.3	18.1	-0.81	14.2	12.2	1.97
Dennis Scott	68	66	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	0	5	17.7	16.9	0.79	14.3	12.8	1.45
Derek Strong	64	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	3	-1	18.2	15.6	2.61	13.0	15.9	-2.94
Dan Schayes	37	36	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	-1	7	16.4	18.1	-1.71	15.0	13.1	1.94
Horace Grant	81	82	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	5	-5	17.7	15.8	1.86	14.2	11.3	2.86
Brian Shaw	40	40	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.24	-1	6	-7	18.9	16.3	2.60	12.7	14.7	-1.94
Darrell Armstrong	16	15	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.11	3	2	1	17.7	17.4	0.36	12.0	14.2	-2.21
Gerald Wilkins	57	58	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	3	-1	16.3	19.3	-2.95	13.8	13.9	-0.01
Nick Anderson	21	21	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	5	-5	15.9	17.9	-2.07	14.2	13.7	0.51

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Goldwire	40	41	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-7	9	14.5	13.3	1.24	17.0	17.8	-0.87
Jerome Allen	15	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-2	-1	14.5	13.7	0.82	20.2	17.0	3.25
Tom Hammonds	8	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-3	1	12.0	14.0	-2.02	11.7	18.0	-6.25
LaPhonso Ellis	74	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-4	3	13.5	15.3	-1.85	17.3	18.0	-0.67
Dale Ellis	41	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	1	-7	12.6	14.9	-2.32	16.8	18.0	-1.15
Ervin Johnson	73	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.34	-2	-3	1	14.5	11.4	3.06	18.0	15.6	2.31
Antonio McDyess	80	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	14.4	9.8	4.62	18.0	14.0	4.03
Bryant Stith	77	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-3	1	13.7	14.5	-0.82	17.0	20.2	-3.25
Brooks Thompson	52	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	2	-9	13.3	14.5	-1.24	17.8	17.0	0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.72,0.43,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 96, VAN 94	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.45,0.27,0	91.7%
PHX 133, GSW 131	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.72,0.43,0.08,0	91.7%
SAC 96, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.24,0.02,0	91.6%