NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	9.3 [121]		MVP	Jerome James (SEA): +15.0%
Seattle SuperSonics	92		Comeback	3.6 [551]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -38.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasho Nesterovic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,-0.01	0.06	-0.07	-0.00	8	69%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15	-0.00	-0.15	0.00	5	64%	-0.04	2	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.09	-0.12	0.00	18	43%	-0.15	2	-0.06	6	33%	-0.13
Manu Ginobili	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.22	-0.05	-0.19	-0.02	11	56%	-0.17	3	-0.05	10	60%	-0.20
Tim Duncan	-0.38	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.23,-0.38	-0.07	-0.30	0.01	16	49%	-0.35	1	-0.03	15	60%	-0.15

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome James	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	7	94%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	6	62%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	9	60%	0.07	0	0.00	12	100%	0.17
Reggie Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	10	45%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	10	46%	-0.07	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.32	-0.32	-0.21	-0.22	-0.11	23	36%	-0.15	4	-0.17	9	78%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.7	34.1	16.8	30.1	2.7	45.0	160.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +18.4%

SEA +54.2%

SAS -3.1%

SAS -6.9%

SAS -12.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	16.6	15.2	15.5	101.1	101.1	104.0
season	16.3	16.5		105.8	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.6		107.9	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	17.4	17.3	14.7	16.6
SEA	16.3	13.3	16.2	15.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	18	17	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.04	4	-5	9	18.8	16.1	2.76	16.3	15.0	1.33
Rasho Nesterovic	8	9	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.09	7	-8	15	14.1	16.9	-2.74	18.2	14.9	3.34
Glenn Robinson	7	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	0	-1	21.0	16.3	4.75	13.2	15.4	-2.15
Nazr Mohammed	30	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	11	-23	18.6	15.6	2.97	14.9	15.4	-0.51
Manu Ginobili	57	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.54	8	-9	17	15.9	17.9	-2.08	15.8	14.3	1.50
Brent Barry	59	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	2	-5	16.8	16.4	0.41	14.3	17.0	-2.71
Robert Horry	50	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.55	6	-7	13	17.0	16.1	0.94	15.4	15.0	0.38
Tim Duncan	74	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.48	1	-2	3	16.5	17.2	-0.76	15.1	15.5	-0.39
Bruce Bowen	74	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.08	-14	13	-27	16.1	19.1	-3.04	15.4	14.2	1.24
Tony Parker	73	76	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.56	-1	0	-1	16.0	19.3	-3.29	15.0	16.3	-1.27

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	64	63	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.55	2	-1	3	15.0	15.7	-0.76	16.4	17.1	-0.75
Ray Allen	83	82	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.45	4	-3	7	15.2	15.2	-0.05	16.1	22.2	-6.18
Nick Collison	34	31	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.75	-7	8	-15	15.4	15.1	0.28	16.6	16.6	0.03
Luke Ridnour	80	79	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.34	6	-5	11	15.0	16.5	-1.42	16.4	18.2	-1.78
Vitaly Potapenko	21	20	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.17	5	-4	9	13.6	15.7	-2.13	15.2	17.0	-1.83
Jerome James	43	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	-4	9	15.5	15.0	0.53	16.3	16.9	-0.58
Reggie Evans	29	29	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	-2	5	15.5	15.1	0.40	17.5	16.2	1.32
Rashard Lewis	66	67	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.23	8	-7	15	15.5	14.3	1.23	17.2	14.9	2.35
Damien Wilkins	25	23	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.15	-12	13	-25	14.8	15.4	-0.56	18.1	16.1	1.97
Danny Fortson	10	11	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	10	-19	17.7	14.9	2.80	18.2	16.4	1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 95, BKN 98	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.41,0.73,1	92.0%
LAC 88, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.4,0.61,0.36,0.68,0.86,1	91.8%
CLE 99, BOS 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.38,0.32,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.29,0.55,0.73,1	91.4%