NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	8.5 [201]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +27.2%
Washington Wizards	95		Comeback	2.9 [307]		LVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): -35.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,0.27	-0.07	0.31	-0.03	14	42%	0.33	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.02	14	66%	0.15	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.1,-0.09,-0.06	0.05	-0.10	0.01	22	69%	0.09	6	-0.15	17	94%	0.09
Christian Laettner	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.08	0.00	2	67%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Michael Doleac	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	1	0%	-0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.24	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	9	33%	-0.21	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.05	0.19	-0.00	15	33%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	12	54%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	14	53%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	0.02	2	50%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.00	17	47%	-0.09	3	-0.08	19	74%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.24,-0.35	-0.35	-0.17	-0.20	-0.02	17	36%	-0.29	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	3.5	34.7	19.7	37.3	3.5	38.9	166.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.0%

WAS -1.1%

MIA +48.4%

WAS -31.0%

MIA +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.3	14.4	15.5	102.1	97.9	104.0
season	15.7	14.7		107.9	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	14.8	13.7	16.3	15.3
WAS	13.8	15.8	15.6	12.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	25	26	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.39	15	-11	26	14.1	15.7	-1.66	13.4	14.7	-1.31
Udonis Haslem	88	88	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	0	4	15.5	13.3	2.18	14.2	16.1	-1.91
Damon Jones	82	81	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	0	4	15.2	15.9	-0.66	13.8	17.2	-3.44
Dwyane Wade	86	86	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	3	-2	15.3	15.3	0.04	14.1	16.6	-2.54
Rasual Butler	26	26	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	-3	10	14.1	15.7	-1.63	15.5	14.0	1.48
Eddie Jones	82	82	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.28	0	4	-4	15.7	13.3	2.42	14.3	14.6	-0.26
Keyon Dooling	16	17	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	2	0	14.9	15.4	-0.52	16.6	13.9	2.75
Michael Doleac	37	38	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	1	2	14.2	16.0	-1.77	15.5	13.7	1.84
Shandon Anderson	8	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	6	-8	15.0	15.3	-0.34	17.2	14.1	3.13
Alonzo Mourning	35	33	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.06	-14	18	-32	17.3	14.2	3.18	13.8	14.7	-0.81

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	12	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-10	16	11.3	14.8	-3.48	17.5	15.0	2.57
Jared Jeffries	39	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	0	-4	15.7	13.5	2.28	16.1	14.8	1.28
Antawn Jamison	64	66	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.36	4	-8	12	14.7	13.7	0.99	16.2	13.4	2.87
Larry Hughes	87	86	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-5	6	13.8	19.1	-5.26	15.6	12.8	2.81
Gilbert Arenas	77	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.18	-3	-1	-2	15.2	11.4	3.76	15.3	15.4	-0.15
Brendan Haywood	87	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.43	2	-6	8	13.9	18.6	-4.70	15.5	13.2	2.30
Michael Ruffin	42	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.02	-12	8	-20	15.0	13.9	1.09	13.2	16.8	-3.60
Anthony Peeler	14	14	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.04	-13	9	-22	14.2	14.4	-0.20	11.1	16.0	-4.87
Juan Dixon	63	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.39	-1	-3	2	13.9	15.3	-1.45	15.0	15.9	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.21,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.21,0.32,0.69,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 109, LAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.32,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.36,0.55,0.58,0	93.1%
TOR 87, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.22,0.23,0.42,0	93.1%
POR 126, OKC 121	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.07,0.24,0.21,0.43,0.42,0	91.3%