NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	90		Excitement	6.5 [495]		MVP	Rodney Rogers (BOS): +15.2%
Detroit Pistons	81		Comeback	1.2 [543]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -22.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Rogers	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.09	0.02	7	87%	0.20	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	8	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.05	0.00	18	46%	0.06	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Tony Delk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	7	56%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.02	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	15	47%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.02	13	51%	0.07	4	-0.14	9	89%	0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.06	-0.02	10	68%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	17	61%	0.10	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	11	53%	0.01	0	0.00	10	90%	0.04
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	7	35%	-0.04	3	-0.08	3	0%	-0.06
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.11	0.02	7	53%	-0.05	2	-0.11	3	67%	-0.03
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	10	20%	-0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.17	-0.08	-0.02	18	22%	-0.19	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	509.8	2.8	32.3	18.6	27.2	2.7	35.2	628.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +51.3%

BOS +2.9%

DET -7.2%

DET -1.3%

BOS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	17.5	15.9	15.6	104.7	93.1	102.3
season	15.0	15.7		100.9	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.7		99.8	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	15.8	18.2	20.8	17.5
DET	17.5	15.5	18.8	12.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	54	57	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.02	18	-9	27	17.2	17.9	-0.72	17.1	13.4	3.74
Tony Battie	67	69	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	3	3	17.3	18.1	-0.77	15.7	16.6	-0.89
Kenny Anderson	70	72	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	-2	13	17.2	18.6	-1.44	16.2	14.3	1.91
Rodney Rogers	49	49	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	4	1	17.8	16.9	0.89	15.5	16.3	-0.73
Eric Williams	70	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	4	1	17.8	15.9	1.94	15.5	17.1	-1.61
Tony Delk	49	50	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.25	-1	10	-11	18.1	16.6	1.55	13.8	18.6	-4.73
Antoine Walker	69	70	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	6	-3	17.1	19.1	-2.00	16.6	12.6	4.05
Erick Strickland	2	0	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.07	-2	11	-13	15.0	17.5	-2.51	0.0	15.9	-15.85

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	26	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-12	15	14.5	16.4	-1.87	18.5	17.0	1.50
Michael Curry	54	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-5	1	16.9	14.2	2.64	17.1	17.9	-0.81
Jon Barry	41	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.12	2	-11	13	13.8	17.7	-3.96	17.8	17.2	0.60
Jerry Stackhouse	61	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.14	-7	-2	-5	16.3	14.8	1.54	17.1	18.2	-1.06
Corliss Williamson	44	44	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-6	3	14.1	17.7	-3.61	18.9	16.0	2.89
Chucky Atkins	61	61	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	3	-15	16.4	14.5	1.87	17.0	18.5	-1.50
Ben Wallace	75	75	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.19	-12	3	-15	16.8	10.0	6.79	17.1	20.0	-2.92
Clifford Robinson	73	73	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	3	-15	16.0	15.0	1.01	17.3	18.3	-1.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.31,0.44,0.33,0.24,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 105, ORL 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.28,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.01,0	92.6%
HOU 83, DEN 74	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.11,0.16,0.03,0.01,0	92.3%
SAC 114, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.3%