NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	7.0 [415]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +17.9%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	1.4 [380]		LVP	Drew Gooden (ORL): -21.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.09	0.01	17	62%	0.18	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Keith Van Horn	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	19	66%	0.18	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	8	67%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Desmond Mason	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	10	69%	0.09	2	-0.08	12	67%	-0.02
Brian Skinner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Marcus Haislip	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	7	14%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.05	-0.02	27	53%	0.15	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.08	0.01	11	50%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Desmond Penigar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	5	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	11	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	13	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	0.03	14	40%	-0.14	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	25.0	16.5	23.4	1.8	34.3	125.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +36.8%

MIL +5.1%

MIL +3.8%

ORL -2.3%

MIL +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.9	15.7	110.5	102.1	100.5
season	15.3	15.7		103.6	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.5		108.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.6	14.6	13.7	14.5	14.4
ORL	17.3	14.2	17.0	15.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Mason	72	70	0.98	-0.48	1.45	0.27	24	-16	40	13.7	16.3	-2.55	16.8	13.6	3.24
Damon Jones	73	72	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.33	17	-9	26	13.9	16.0	-2.18	16.0	15.7	0.27
Keith Van Horn	75	75	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-5	18	14.0	15.8	-1.88	16.4	14.3	2.02
Michael Redd	80	82	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.23	3	5	-2	14.8	11.9	2.97	15.8	16.6	-0.77
Dan Gadzuric	51	51	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	9	-10	13.9	14.9	-0.96	14.9	17.2	-2.34
Brian Skinner	44	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	-1	10	14.9	13.9	0.96	17.2	14.9	2.34
Marcus Haislip	30	29	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.03	-4	12	-16	14.6	14.3	0.29	15.3	16.2	-0.87
Erick Strickland	22	23	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.07	-9	17	-26	16.0	13.9	2.18	15.7	16.0	-0.27
Toni Kukoc	28	29	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.03	-12	20	-32	15.5	13.9	1.55	13.7	16.9	-3.25

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Penigar	14	13	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.06	5	-13	18	15.6	16.0	-0.44	17.5	13.9	3.67
Sean Rooks	9	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.01	-3	-5	2	16.1	15.9	0.18	14.6	14.3	0.21
Drew Gooden	41	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.16	2	-10	12	14.5	17.0	-2.52	13.8	14.8	-0.98
Steven Hunter	49	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-6	4	16.4	15.5	0.87	15.1	13.6	1.53
Keith Bogans	40	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-3	-2	15.5	16.3	-0.73	14.0	14.6	-0.65
Andrew DeClercq	30	30	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-6	4	16.4	15.7	0.66	14.2	14.5	-0.29
Juwan Howard	61	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	3	-14	16.3	15.3	1.06	14.2	14.6	-0.39
Tyronn Lue	81	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	15.8	16.6	-0.82	14.3	14.8	-0.49
Tracy McGrady	76	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.27	-7	-1	-6	15.9	16.1	-0.20	14.2	14.9	-0.66
DeShawn Stevenson	74	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	3	-14	16.4	14.3	2.13	14.2	14.9	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.4,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.28,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 90, DET 81	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.31,0.44,0.33,0.24,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.02,0,0	92.6%
NJN 102, VAN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.35,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.27,0.2,0.04,0.02,0,0	92.3%
NJN 96, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.05,0,0,0	92.0%