NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	83		Excitement	7.0 [398]		MVP	Kelvin Cato (HOU): +6.5%
Denver Nuggets	74		Comeback	1.6 [765]		LVP	Moochie Norris (HOU): -19.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelvin Cato	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Juaquin Hawkins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	8	44%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	8	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.01	0.04	0.04	16	64%	0.14	5	-0.14	13	92%	0.06
Steve Francis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.06	0.00	12	64%	0.19	7	-0.21	9	89%	0.02
Bostjan Nachbar	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Yao Ming	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	12	27%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Moochie Norris	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	6	0%	-0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Satterfield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	-0.07	0.05	-0.07	16	38%	0.04	1	0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
James Posey	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	17	44%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	5	46%	-0.05	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.02
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	12	25%	-0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	0.7	29.4	15.7	24.1	1.6	32.5	130.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +31.4%

HOU +21.7%

HOU +21.2%

DEN -23.5%

DEN -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	17.4	15.0	15.5	93.3	83.1	101.6
season	16.3	15.7		101.7	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		99.4	100.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.8	15.7	16.5	21.0	17.4
DEN	14.5	14.3	16.2	15.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	70	72	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-3	15	16.8	19.5	-2.74	14.9	15.2	-0.30
Cuttino Mobley	87	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-2	13	17.3	20.0	-2.69	15.1	9.0	6.13
Kelvin Cato	52	54	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.33	6	3	3	17.0	17.9	-0.89	14.8	15.3	-0.44
Eddie Griffin	65	65	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	3	3	16.6	19.4	-2.74	15.5	13.7	1.75
Juaquin Hawkins	48	49	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	1	7	18.5	16.0	2.45	14.8	15.2	-0.47
Bostjan Nachbar	24	22	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.07	-2	11	-13	16.7	17.6	-0.91	14.9	15.0	-0.11
Jason Collier	38	36	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.13	5	4	1	17.8	17.0	0.78	15.1	14.9	0.25
Moochie Norris	38	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	11	-13	17.6	17.2	0.36	15.1	14.9	0.20
Yao Ming	23	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	8	-7	19.6	16.6	2.96	13.8	15.4	-1.57

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	33	34	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-9	9	14.2	15.4	-1.23	18.5	16.7	1.78
Junior Harrington	34	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-6	3	16.4	14.1	2.30	15.7	18.5	-2.81
Donnell Harvey	16	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-6	3	13.1	15.4	-2.35	18.2	17.2	1.07
Chris Whitney	58	57	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-7	5	14.0	16.8	-2.79	16.6	18.7	-2.15
Nene	38	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-5	1	15.2	14.9	0.30	18.7	16.4	2.25
Chris Andersen	36	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.27	-1	-8	7	16.1	14.2	1.88	19.2	16.0	3.20
Mark Blount	51	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	14.9	15.2	-0.30	16.4	18.7	-2.25
Ryan Bowen	41	40	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.22	-8	-1	-7	15.6	14.4	1.20	16.8	17.8	-0.99
James Posey	78	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	0	-9	14.7	17.1	-2.40	17.2	18.3	-1.03
Kenny Satterfield	60	58	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	1	-11	15.3	14.3	1.06	17.6	16.9	0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.11,0.16,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 93, MIL 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.48,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.02,0	93.9%
MEM 103, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.02,0	93.3%
UTA 90, HOU 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.09,0.13,0	92.7%