NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	103		Excitement	7.2 [411]		MVP	Mario Chalmers (MEM): +25.7%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.6 [643]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -23.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.26	0.13	0.14	0.02	6	75%	0.26	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
PJ Hairston	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	0.01	10	61%	0.18	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Lance Stephenson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.10	0.00	9	70%	0.20	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.07	0.05	0.01	17	58%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	3	58%	0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
JaMychal Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.02	10	62%	0.07	1	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Jarell Martin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	9	30%	-0.04	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Vince Carter	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	25%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.07	-0.02	8	65%	0.17	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.05	-0.01	7	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	12	67%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	8	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	83%	0.07	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.02	13	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JaKarr Sampson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	9	41%	0.02	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.24,-0.23	-0.23	-0.08	-0.13	0.03	9	44%	-0.02	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	31.4	16.4	21.2	2.0	41.2	141.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -13.5%

MEM +32.5%

DEN -5.8%

MEM +34.1%

MEM +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	16.6	15.1	14.9	113.2	105.5	105.1
season	15.7	14.9		103.4	104.3
opponent	14.9	14.8		107.8	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.1	16.9	18.2	16.2	16.6
DEN	14.9	14.4	16.9	14.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Hairston	59	59	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-4	15	17.1	15.7	1.36	15.5	14.3	1.23
Matt Barnes	73	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	0	7	16.7	16.1	0.64	14.7	16.4	-1.70
Chris Andersen	51	52	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.22	10	-3	13	16.6	16.5	0.04	15.6	14.4	1.21
Mario Chalmers	42	44	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.19	5	2	3	16.0	17.1	-1.11	15.4	14.8	0.60
Mike Conley	56	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.17	5	2	3	16.5	16.6	-0.09	14.3	16.3	-1.92
Zach Randolph	62	63	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	5	-3	16.9	15.8	1.14	14.3	16.8	-2.47
Lance Stephenson	40	39	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	8	-9	16.2	16.8	-0.62	14.8	15.2	-0.40
Jarell Martin	22	22	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	4	-1	15.5	16.9	-1.35	16.4	14.7	1.76
JaMychal Green	24	22	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	8	-9	15.8	16.8	-1.00	16.2	14.7	1.46
Vince Carter	37	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.06	0	7	-7	16.5	16.6	-0.05	14.5	15.5	-1.04

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	29	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.09	-4	-3	-1	15.7	14.8	0.90	15.1	17.3	-2.20
Nikola Jokic	37	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-5	3	14.8	15.2	-0.40	16.8	16.4	0.45
JaKarr Sampson	56	56	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-4	1	15.2	14.9	0.31	17.0	15.8	1.21
Joffrey Lauvergne	35	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-4	1	16.6	14.1	2.52	15.9	17.0	-1.18
Gary Harris	65	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-5	3	14.7	16.1	-1.40	16.6	16.5	0.10
Kenneth Faried	53	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.17	-7	0	-7	15.5	14.5	0.99	17.3	15.6	1.72
Will Barton	65	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-3	-1	15.0	15.2	-0.22	16.2	17.5	-1.25
Darrell Arthur	52	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.28	-5	-2	-3	14.5	15.8	-1.35	16.1	17.3	-1.23
Emmanuel Mudiay	63	61	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	-2	-3	14.6	16.2	-1.64	17.3	15.1	2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 99, DEN 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.42,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.35,0.22,0.2,0.22,0.06,0,0	93.5%
HOU 83, DEN 74	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.11,0.16,0.03,0.01,0	93.3%
LAC 103, PHX 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.4,0.39,0.25,0.36,0.1,0.05,0	92.9%