NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	120		Excitement	10.8 [32]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): +30.0%
Washington Wizards	116		Comeback	3.7 [347]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (WAS): -32.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12	-0.00	0.10	-0.02	14	74%	0.32	7	-0.20	18	78%	-0.07
Glenn Robinson	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.00	24	60%	0.24	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0,0.05,0,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.07	0.02	22	58%	0.18	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.10
Scott Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	61%	0.06	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Danny Manning	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	3	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Tim Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	7	56%	0.09	2	-0.17	4	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3	0.30	-0.03	0.33	0.00	18	48%	0.32	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.06
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.00	8	79%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.11	-0.00	16	58%	0.18	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	10	65%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerard King	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	-0.00	9	45%	-0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Chris Whitney	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,-0.24	-0.24	0.06	-0.27	0.02	9	85%	0.16	4	-0.39	2	50%	-0.06
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.22,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.08	-0.26	-0.02	20	39%	-0.29	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.2	1.6	27.6	15.4	24.6	2.5	38.2	1.7	16.2	153.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	1.7	18.2	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +20.6%

MIL +17.3%

MIL +38.4%

WAS -21.5%

WAS -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	13.2	15.7	15.2	108.1	106.4	101.7
season	14.9	15.5		105.5	101.1
opponent	14.8	15.4		104.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	13.8	12.3	12.9	14.5	12.1	13.2
WAS	15.0	13.8	18.7	16.8	14.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	76	77	1.14	-0.64	1.77	0.81	11	-7	18	13.1	13.5	-0.49	15.2	16.9	-1.67
Tim Thomas	74	73	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-6	16	13.1	13.4	-0.30	15.8	15.5	0.38
Ray Allen	101	100	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	-2	8	13.1	14.4	-1.31	15.9	13.7	2.24
Glenn Robinson	97	95	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.40	4	0	4	13.0	14.6	-1.64	15.6	16.7	-1.14
Sam Cassell	94	93	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	3	-2	12.9	14.9	-1.98	16.0	14.2	1.73
Danny Manning	20	20	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	2	0	15.2	12.8	2.49	16.7	15.5	1.26
Scott Williams	36	34	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.08	-2	6	-8	13.7	13.0	0.72	15.8	15.7	0.10
Darvin Ham	57	53	-0.70	1.20	-1.91	-0.35	-12	16	-28	13.6	12.8	0.76	15.3	16.1	-0.82

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jahidi White	42	43	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.02	5	-9	14	17.8	14.4	3.31	13.1	13.2	-0.11
Gerard King	35	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-4	4	16.2	15.5	0.74	13.9	12.9	0.97
Aaron Williams	18	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.05	-2	-2	0	15.3	15.8	-0.47	11.1	13.6	-2.43
Tracy Murray	60	63	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-1	-2	16.0	15.3	0.72	12.2	14.5	-2.31
Richard Hamilton	62	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	0	-4	16.2	15.1	1.12	13.6	12.7	0.88
Chris Whitney	92	97	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-5	6	15.2	18.4	-3.11	13.2	13.4	-0.17
Juwan Howard	91	95	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.43	-2	-2	0	15.8	15.3	0.47	13.6	11.1	2.43
Mitch Richmond	82	82	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.44	-7	3	-10	15.4	16.7	-1.35	13.1	13.4	-0.23
Don Reid	63	61	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.47	-8	4	-12	14.4	17.5	-3.03	13.6	12.7	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.23,0.28,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 98, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.67,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.33,0.15,0.06,0.04,0	89.0%
UTA 94, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.74,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.45,0.59,0.46,0.55,0.46,0.22,0.15,0	89.0%
MIN 101, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.57,0.41,0.46,0.31,0.1,0.02,0,0	88.5%