NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	94		Excitement	10.2 [67]		MVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): +29.6%
Detroit Pistons	90		Comeback	10.8 [75]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -27.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.2,0.2,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.02	0.29	0.01	18	57%	0.45	4	-0.16	6	83%	0.09
Mehmet Okur	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13	-0.04	0.14	-0.03	12	45%	0.16	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Greg Ostertag	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.01	7	56%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.05
Matt Harpring	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Milt Palacio	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Whaley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0	0.05	-0.06	-0.00	9	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Devin Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jarron Collins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gordan Giricek	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith McLeod	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.12	-0.00	13	39%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.06
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	59%	0.09	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.12	-0.02	21	48%	-0.04	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.13
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.01	-0.11	0.03	12	50%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.05	-0.23	-0.00	20	41%	-0.24	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.7	2.0	27.1	16.7	24.2	2.7	35.0	2.5	11.9	147.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +100.9%

DET -5.4%

DET -41.4%

DET -11.7%

UTA +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DET	NBA	UTA	DET	NBA
this game	17.2	18.7	15.6	105.6	102.3	104.4
season	17.0	16.9		101.7	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.0		101.4	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
UTA	19.5	13.2	19.8	17.1	18.2	17.2
DET	14.8	16.8	22.6	22.9	17.0	18.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deron Williams	48	48	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.36	20	-16	36	15.9	18.7	-2.82	19.2	18.2	0.97
Greg Ostertag	54	54	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.39	14	-10	24	16.1	18.9	-2.80	18.0	19.9	-1.93
Andrei Kirilenko	82	80	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.41	10	-6	16	17.3	15.9	1.47	19.3	13.4	5.89
Milt Palacio	38	37	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.30	10	-6	16	16.2	18.0	-1.80	19.4	18.3	1.12
Matt Harpring	43	45	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.08	15	-11	26	15.1	19.2	-4.15	19.1	18.4	0.69
Gordan Giricek	12	12	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	8	-12	19.3	16.9	2.45	17.5	18.9	-1.42
Robert Whaley	3	2	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	4	-4	7.7	17.5	-9.88	16.5	18.8	-2.28
Mehmet Okur	55	53	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.38	-17	21	-38	18.5	15.1	3.44	18.0	19.9	-1.88
Devin Brown	39	39	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.09	-2	6	-8	17.6	16.9	0.62	18.5	18.9	-0.43
Jarron Collins	30	30	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.08	-10	14	-24	20.5	15.5	4.96	19.6	18.3	1.32
Keith McLeod	41	40	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	0.03	-16	20	-36	18.7	15.9	2.82	18.2	19.2	-0.97

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	45	44	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.15	-1	-3	2	17.4	20.2	-2.81	15.0	19.3	-4.29
Maurice Evans	12	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.07	-4	0	-4	15.2	19.3	-4.12	13.2	17.8	-4.60
Carlos Delfino	29	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.15	-8	4	-12	18.0	19.1	-1.08	13.9	18.7	-4.79
Carlos Arroyo	12	13	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	8	-20	19.5	18.6	0.89	12.2	18.1	-5.93
Chauncey Billups	76	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.50	8	-12	20	18.6	19.5	-0.89	18.1	12.2	5.93
Richard Hamilton	70	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.46	3	-7	10	19.0	17.5	1.54	17.7	15.0	2.70
Ben Wallace	81	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.44	1	-5	6	18.9	17.3	1.57	17.7	12.0	5.66
Tayshaun Prince	65	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.53	1	-5	6	19.4	16.9	2.46	18.7	12.8	5.92
Rasheed Wallace	50	52	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.47	-8	4	-12	19.8	17.4	2.39	18.3	15.6	2.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.74,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.45,0.59,0.46,0.55,0.46,0.22,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 92, MIA 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.79,0.67,0.85,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.68,0.84,0.46,0.47,0.64,0.24,0.17,0	89.2%
MIL 120, WAS 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.23,0.28,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.16,0	89.0%
ORL 100, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.69,0.72,0.33,0.42,0	89.0%