NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	73		Excitement	3.5 [1079]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): +12.3%
Detroit Pistons	90		Comeback	1.0 [914]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -13.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	12	73%	0.12	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Rodney Buford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	8	69%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	10	53%	-0.03	1	-0.02	10	40%	-0.06
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	7	25%	-0.05	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.05	4	36%	-0.05	3	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Dan Majerle	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	5	9%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.18	-0.00	-0.05	12	21%	-0.11	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.01	-0.05	9	85%	0.18	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.00	0.03	5	110%	0.08	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	2	87%	0.04	2	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	9	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.08	0.01	-0.08	23	52%	0.09	5	-0.07	10	90%	0.02
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	-0.06	6	19%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.13	0.00	-0.07	7	0%	-0.06	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	1.8	28.0	15.5	30.6	3.4	26.5	133.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +37.8%

DET +7.6%

DET +4.5%

DET +0.6%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.4	17.3	15.2	83.9	101.1	101.7
season	15.7	14.1		101.2	104.2
opponent	15.3	15.9		103.0	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.8	14.1	14.8	14.2	15.4
DET	17.2	17.2	14.6	20.7	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-19	21	10.2	16.1	-5.88	21.4	16.8	4.62
Otis Thorpe	20	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.06	2	-19	21	16.8	15.0	1.81	19.1	16.7	2.37
Rodney Buford	35	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-18	19	14.0	16.4	-2.39	18.1	16.8	1.29
P.J. Brown	32	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.05	-3	-14	11	15.2	15.5	-0.34	15.5	18.3	-2.77
Bruce Bowen	49	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	-10	3	15.4	15.4	0.06	18.4	15.8	2.60
Clar. Weatherspoon	45	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.11	-15	-2	-13	14.9	16.0	-1.06	18.8	15.6	3.23
Dan Majerle	42	41	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-4	-9	17.0	13.9	3.04	16.8	17.7	-0.92
Jamal Mashburn	65	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	-3	-11	16.3	12.8	3.46	16.4	20.2	-3.82
Alonzo Mourning	57	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.12	-21	4	-25	15.8	14.6	1.22	15.9	19.8	-3.92
Anthony Carter	80	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.00	-17	0	-17	14.8	21.7	-6.86	17.1	19.4	-2.31

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	71	70	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-2	21	17.0	18.4	-1.36	14.7	18.1	-3.37
Grant Hill	57	57	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.17	22	-5	27	16.4	18.9	-2.50	16.6	13.0	3.62
Lindsey Hunter	58	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.05	14	3	11	16.6	18.5	-1.91	15.0	16.3	-1.24
Jerome Williams	44	41	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.14	17	0	17	18.4	16.2	2.23	15.2	15.6	-0.39
Christian Laettner	50	52	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	11	-5	16.6	18.3	-1.70	16.1	14.4	1.68
Mikki Moore	51	48	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	16	-15	17.8	16.6	1.26	14.1	17.0	-2.90
John Crotty	31	27	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	14	-11	18.5	16.6	1.91	16.3	15.0	1.24
Terry Mills	20	21	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	10	-3	16.7	17.5	-0.78	18.4	14.5	3.93
Eric Montross	13	12	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	14	-11	15.2	17.7	-2.52	13.2	15.8	-2.59
Michael Curry	43	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	22	-27	18.5	16.2	2.25	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Jud Buechler	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	20.3	17.0	3.24	11.3	15.7	-4.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 93, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
DAL 76, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.83,0.88,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
WAS 94, MIA 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%