NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	94		Excitement	3.6 [1123]		MVP	Luol Deng (MIA): +10.6%
Miami Heat	114		Comeback	1.2 [756]		LVP	John Wall (WAS): -9.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Dudley	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.00	-0.01	12	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Nene	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.01	0.03	12	48%	0.00	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Drew Gooden	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	71%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jarell Eddie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	43%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	20	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Markieff Morris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	7	31%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Otto Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ramon Sessions	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	10	39%	-0.04	1	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Garrett Temple	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	0.00	-0.01	17	33%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	0.01	0.07	18	66%	0.11	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.02	20	51%	0.10	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.00	0.07	15	68%	0.08	1	-0.01	7	43%	-0.03
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.00	-0.07	8	31%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	8	31%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	8	39%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.01	0.04	10	56%	0.02	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.03
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	21%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.0	32.0	15.4	28.1	1.8	28.3	133.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.1%

MIA +3.9%

MIA +8.4%

WAS -1.9%

MIA +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	13.8	15.7	14.9	95.9	117.5	105.1
season	13.8	15.5		104.1	104.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		103.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.5	12.4	13.9	14.6	13.8
MIA	14.3	17.1	14.3	17.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-21	22	13.1	13.9	-0.79	16.0	15.7	0.31
Jarell Eddie	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-21	22	13.1	13.9	-0.79	16.0	15.7	0.31
Kelly Oubre	9	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-21	22	12.0	14.0	-2.01	17.0	15.6	1.43
Markieff Morris	40	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-15	10	13.8	13.9	-0.09	16.7	15.0	1.71
Nene	25	25	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.14	-10	-10	0	13.4	14.0	-0.57	18.0	14.9	3.07
Bradley Beal	59	57	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-15	10	13.5	14.4	-0.88	16.8	14.1	2.72
Ramon Sessions	49	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-10	0	13.0	14.7	-1.65	17.0	14.4	2.57
Garrett Temple	36	36	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	-6	-8	14.7	13.3	1.37	13.9	16.8	-2.96
Jared Dudley	54	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.09	-14	-6	-8	14.2	13.4	0.80	14.8	16.9	-2.17
Marcin Gortat	64	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-9	-2	14.1	13.3	0.77	14.8	17.5	-2.69
John Wall	69	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.22	-21	1	-22	14.3	12.7	1.66	15.4	16.6	-1.23
Otto Porter	67	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	-7	-6	13.9	13.8	0.08	15.2	16.9	-1.78

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	68	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	5	10	16.7	13.3	3.44	13.5	14.7	-1.24
Gerald Green	60	61	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.10	8	12	-4	14.6	17.5	-2.85	14.0	13.5	0.50
Goran Dragic	62	63	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	7	6	14.7	17.6	-2.89	13.8	13.9	-0.18
Josh McRoberts	36	38	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.25	19	1	18	17.5	14.7	2.83	13.9	13.8	0.11
Luol Deng	71	71	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.08	12	8	4	15.7	15.7	0.04	13.8	13.8	0.02
Amar'e Stoudemire	36	36	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.15	14	6	8	13.5	17.0	-3.58	14.5	13.4	1.11
Hassan Whiteside	57	58	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	12	-4	17.1	13.8	3.23	13.3	14.6	-1.26
Justise Winslow	56	54	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	14	-8	14.5	17.4	-2.93	14.0	13.6	0.43
Beno Udrih	35	35	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	13	-6	17.6	14.7	2.89	13.9	13.8	0.18
Udonis Haslem	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	22	-24	17.0	15.7	1.33	15.0	13.8	1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 110, WAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
SAC 92, IND 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
MIN 87, HOU 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%