NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	95		Excitement	6.1 [579]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): +11.5%
Toronto Raptors	91		Comeback	1.1 [231]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -24.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12	-0.01	0.09	-0.03	12	58%	0.14	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07	-0.06	0.09	-0.04	19	55%	0.15	5	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02
Chris Gatling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.08	-0.02	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.07	8	75%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.26,-0.24	-0.17	-0.09	-0.02	14	47%	-0.08	7	-0.17	8	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywoode Workman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.00	0.06	9	61%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	9	41%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	11	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.10
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.15,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.08	0.04	30	48%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.19	-0.00	-0.05	9	14%	-0.10	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	8	44%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	31.3	16.4	25.2	1.8	47.3	149.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.6%

DEN +15.5%

DEN +26.6%

TOR -30.1%

TOR -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.1	15.7	15.2	102.2	96.8	101.7
season	14.8	15.5		101.5	101.8
opponent	14.9	15.0		102.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	14.1	14.7	19.1	15.1
TOR	15.8	15.9	16.7	14.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	74	77	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.18	13	-9	22	15.1	15.1	-0.05	15.7	15.8	-0.11
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	69	70	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.28	8	-4	12	14.0	18.1	-4.07	15.1	17.6	-2.54
Nick Van Exel	77	78	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	-3	10	15.4	13.4	2.04	15.8	15.4	0.36
Raef LaFrentz	78	80	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	0	4	14.4	18.5	-4.06	15.3	18.0	-2.66
James Posey	62	61	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.09	9	-5	14	15.3	14.5	0.77	16.6	14.2	2.39
Keon Clark	57	58	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.52	-15	19	-34	15.8	13.9	1.96	15.4	16.2	-0.84
Chris Gatling	15	13	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	7	-10	14.7	15.1	-0.39	15.6	15.8	-0.14
Bryant Stith	33	33	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	7	-10	16.4	14.3	2.01	17.0	15.0	2.00

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dell Curry	32	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.32	9	-13	22	14.7	16.3	-1.63	16.7	14.1	2.59
Haywoode Workman	11	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.14	-7	3	-10	13.3	16.1	-2.79	11.6	15.5	-3.89
Kevin Willis	46	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-9	14	17.0	14.5	2.56	15.7	14.5	1.16
Michael Stewart	19	19	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	1	-6	18.3	15.1	3.17	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Tracy McGrady	41	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	0	-4	17.0	14.7	2.29	14.4	15.5	-1.13
Muggsy Bogues	52	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.46	7	-11	18	15.6	15.9	-0.27	15.2	14.9	0.33
Doug Christie	62	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-2	0	15.1	17.0	-1.87	15.6	14.2	1.42
Antonio Davis	62	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-4	4	14.8	17.5	-2.72	15.8	13.7	2.10
Charles Oakley	64	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	2	-8	15.7	15.9	-0.19	14.5	16.2	-1.71
Vince Carter	81	79	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.14	-17	13	-30	15.8	15.2	0.67	14.3	19.4	-5.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.2,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.09,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 101, NOH 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.07,0,0	94.2%
MIL 129, SAC 122	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.03,0.01,0	93.6%
DAL 128, NOP 120	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.21,0.04,0,0	93.5%