NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	129		Excitement	5.2 [769]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +26.0%
Sacramento Kings	122		Comeback	1.1 [837]		LVP	Beno Udrih (SAC): -7.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.32	-0.01	0.05	26	76%	0.27	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.04,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.26	0.02	0.19	-0.05	20	54%	0.30	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	2	117%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.02	0.02	11	63%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.04	8	80%	0.08	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	14	44%	0.00	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.02
Joe Alexander	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.08	0.03	9	86%	0.25	3	-0.06	10	70%	-0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.04	0.02	7	80%	0.17	2	-0.03	11	91%	-0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.16	0.02	0.08	5	88%	0.15	2	-0.04	15	93%	0.02
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.02	0.05	17	60%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.00
Mikki Moore	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	0.02	11	46%	0.02	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	61%	0.06	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	32.0	16.6	34.0	0.8	38.2	152.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +12.5%

SAC -8.5%

MIL +17.7%

MIL +26.4%

MIL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.1	14.1	15.5	126.5	119.6	106.4
season	15.0	15.0		104.9	104.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		112.7	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.5	14.9	12.9	15.3	14.1
SAC	15.3	13.3	13.8	14.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	85	85	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.07	17	-10	27	13.6	16.7	-3.08	14.1	14.0	0.12
Luc Mbah a Moute	67	67	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.34	3	4	-1	13.8	14.7	-0.88	13.0	16.1	-3.07
Luke Ridnour	79	78	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.14	9	-2	11	14.0	14.5	-0.44	14.3	13.3	1.00
Richard Jefferson	69	70	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	5	-3	13.9	14.6	-0.74	14.3	13.7	0.51
Charlie Villanueva	72	70	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.24	2	5	-3	14.3	13.8	0.48	14.2	14.0	0.19
Francisco Elson	35	34	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.19	14	-7	21	15.4	13.5	1.92	15.4	13.4	1.97
Charlie Bell	26	25	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	6	-5	14.5	14.0	0.44	14.1	14.1	0.03
Dan Gadzuric	23	25	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	9	-11	14.7	14.0	0.66	14.3	14.0	0.24
Ramon Sessions	33	34	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.25	-7	14	-21	14.8	13.8	0.96	13.8	14.2	-0.46
Joe Alexander	21	22	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	11	-15	13.8	14.2	-0.47	13.9	14.1	-0.24

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Brown	6	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-8	9	17.7	13.9	3.79	11.8	14.3	-2.45
Spencer Hawes	17	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-7	7	13.5	14.2	-0.68	15.5	13.9	1.64
Mikki Moore	9	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-3	-1	15.0	14.0	0.99	14.0	14.1	-0.15
Bobby Jackson	40	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.05	-9	2	-11	13.8	14.3	-0.41	13.1	14.8	-1.72
Francisco Garcia	65	65	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-1	-5	14.0	14.2	-0.14	13.6	15.0	-1.35
Jason Thompson	75	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-9	11	14.7	12.6	2.10	13.8	15.0	-1.14
Kevin Martin	84	86	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-9	11	13.6	16.3	-2.65	14.4	12.6	1.79
John Salmons	66	68	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.30	-1	-6	5	14.3	13.7	0.58	14.8	12.8	1.97
Beno Udrih	82	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-4	1	14.1	14.2	-0.13	14.2	13.8	0.42
Brad Miller	66	68	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.04	-17	10	-27	13.8	14.7	-0.88	14.4	13.7	0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, NYK 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.25,0.21,0.05,0.01,0	93.9%
PHI 118, MIN 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.15,0.16,0.01,0.04,0	93.8%
PHX 103, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.19,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.34,0.11,0.02,0	93.7%