NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	5.1 [786]		MVP	Sam Perkins (IND): +11.0%
Indiana Pacers	109		Comeback	1.0 [1111]		LVP	Dell Curry (TOR): -9.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.01	11	64%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.02	0.05	13	67%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Willis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	7	57%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.05	-0.03	0.03	8	76%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Haywoode Workman	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	15	54%	-0.01	3	-0.03	9	78%	-0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	17	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Muggsy Bogues	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	6	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	0.00	-0.04	9	19%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	6	86%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jalen Rose	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.02	23	62%	0.14	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	9	79%	0.14	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	8	72%	0.10	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	61%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	12	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rik Smits	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.7	26.3	16.3	26.6	2.5	32.5	129.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +52.6%

IND +5.5%

TOR -5.2%

TOR -6.3%

IND +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	IND	NBA	TOR	IND	NBA
this game	15.9	15.7	15.2	111.0	119.8	101.7
season	15.5	15.4		101.8	106.5
opponent	15.1	14.9		101.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.4	16.3	15.4	16.7	15.9
IND	15.9	14.3	15.9	16.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywoode Workman	15	15	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.15	6	-14	20	16.9	15.7	1.18	16.2	15.6	0.59
Doug Christie	59	60	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-8	8	15.3	17.2	-1.92	15.9	15.4	0.48
Kevin Willis	44	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-8	8	15.4	16.5	-1.08	15.9	15.6	0.31
Muggsy Bogues	32	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-5	2	17.6	15.1	2.54	15.5	15.8	-0.35
Dell Curry	29	31	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	5	-18	16.2	15.8	0.33	13.3	16.9	-3.61
Antonio Davis	75	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-5	2	16.1	15.3	0.77	15.8	15.1	0.68
Vince Carter	76	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-3	-2	15.6	17.9	-2.38	16.0	14.3	1.68
Tracy McGrady	55	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.22	-6	-2	-4	15.9	16.0	-0.09	15.6	15.8	-0.22
Charles Oakley	70	67	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.12	-16	8	-24	16.1	15.4	0.73	16.2	14.3	1.86

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	72	72	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.21	10	-2	12	15.5	16.3	-0.77	15.7	16.9	-1.20
Jalen Rose	76	77	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.22	9	-1	10	15.5	16.9	-1.47	16.0	15.6	0.36
Mark Jackson	61	60	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	2	4	16.0	15.2	0.80	15.5	16.8	-1.26
Reggie Miller	72	72	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	4	0	16.1	14.4	1.69	15.8	16.4	-0.60
Sam Perkins	40	41	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	5	-2	16.1	15.4	0.71	17.0	15.1	1.92
Travis Best	26	27	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.07	3	5	-2	15.3	15.9	-0.55	17.1	15.5	1.61
Derrick McKey	43	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	5	-2	14.8	16.5	-1.64	15.5	16.3	-0.83
Austin Croshere	44	43	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	4	0	16.1	15.4	0.71	15.7	16.2	-0.56
Rik Smits	21	22	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	10	-12	15.9	15.6	0.26	16.2	15.9	0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 85, CHA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%
NOH 102, MIN 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.83,0.74,0.66,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,1	94.8%
UTA 96, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.76,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.95,1,1,0.99,1,1	94.6%