NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	8.2 [224]		MVP	John Stockton (UTA): +30.3%
Utah Jazz	93		Comeback	3.2 [404]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -37.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Kerr	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	3	86%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mario Elie	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	2	117%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.04	0.00	4	33%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	12	38%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Felton Spencer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	1	83%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.00	7	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	13	35%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.37	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.03,-0.37	0.05	-0.42	0.00	24	56%	-0.22	1	-0.15	9	89%	0.03

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Stockton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.3	0.30	-0.02	0.32	0.00	9	67%	0.40	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	11	71%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	10	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	67%	0.07	1	-0.04	10	70%	0.02
Adam Keefe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	4	0%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.32	-0.32	-0.11	-0.21	0.01	20	47%	-0.22	3	-0.09	13	85%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	36.1	2.0	30.1	18.5	30.2	2.5	33.2	152.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +38.1%

UTA +9.3%

SAS -4.2%

UTA +8.1%

SAS -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	16.8	15.5	15.2	100.0	105.7	101.7
season	15.5	16.3		101.6	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.4		100.6	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.3	17.5	17.1	16.3	16.8
UTA	13.7	15.3	12.2	22.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felton Spencer	19	18	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-5	7	12.8	17.9	-5.08	13.6	16.1	-2.50
Steve Kerr	26	25	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.05	2	-5	7	15.2	17.5	-2.26	16.3	15.2	1.08
Samaki Walker	4	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-2	1	21.2	16.6	4.66	16.7	15.5	1.26
Antonio Daniels	28	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	0	-3	15.9	17.2	-1.26	16.2	15.2	0.98
Jerome Kersey	12	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	0	-3	18.9	16.5	2.44	14.7	15.7	-0.94
Mario Elie	58	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	1	-5	16.7	16.9	-0.16	13.5	19.5	-6.05
Malik Rose	28	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.15	-1	-2	1	17.9	16.3	1.53	16.0	15.3	0.67
Jaren Jackson	32	30	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-4	5	16.9	16.7	0.16	19.5	13.5	6.05
David Robinson	53	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	0	-3	17.5	15.8	1.63	16.8	13.9	2.90
Avery Johnson	62	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-3	3	17.2	15.9	1.26	15.2	16.2	-0.98
Terry Porter	52	52	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.40	-2	-1	-1	17.1	16.4	0.75	15.3	15.8	-0.49
Tim Duncan	76	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.39	-3	0	-3	16.7	17.3	-0.58	15.0	18.9	-3.96

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	72	74	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.41	3	0	3	14.9	18.3	-3.38	16.5	18.1	-1.61
Bryon Russell	82	83	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	0	3	15.6	14.8	0.76	17.0	14.9	2.11
Jeff Hornacek	68	69	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.31	2	1	1	13.8	21.4	-7.58	16.0	19.5	-3.55
Armen Gilliam	30	31	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	4	-5	19.1	13.7	5.39	17.2	16.6	0.65
John Stockton	50	50	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.33	0	3	-3	15.4	15.7	-0.34	17.6	15.8	1.85
Howard Eisley	44	47	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.17	4	-1	5	16.1	15.0	1.18	16.4	17.2	-0.74
Greg Ostertag	54	53	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	-4	11	14.5	17.2	-2.66	16.5	17.2	-0.61
Quincy Lewis	13	14	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	3	-3	21.4	14.5	6.85	17.9	16.6	1.25
Adam Keefe	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	3	-3	18.1	15.3	2.82	17.4	16.7	0.68
Olden Polynice	20	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	6	-9	15.2	15.6	-0.45	17.8	16.5	1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.69,0.75,0.55,0.55,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 102, MIN 107	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.55,0.42,1	91.8%
UTA 78, MEM 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.68,0.72,0.56,0.58,1	91.4%
PHI 91, CHA 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.28,1	90.9%