NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	80		Excitement	8.7 [139]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): +24.2%
New York Knicks	78		Comeback	12.2 [27]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -29.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.24	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.24	-0.02	0.26	0.00	11	46%	0.27	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	7	69%	0.19	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.12
Bryant Stith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Keon Clark	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
James Posey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	5	43%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.05	-0.02	16	39%	-0.12	3	-0.07	9	44%	-0.07
Nick Van Exel	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.24,-0.12,-0.29	-0.09	-0.20	0.00	23	39%	-0.25	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Ward	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	47%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Chris Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.00	9	54%	0.01	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.07
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	12	32%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	13	47%	-0.08	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23	-0.23	-0.16	-0.07	-0.01	20	36%	-0.09	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	26.4	16.4	25.6	2.5	41.3	136.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +10.1%

DEN +29.9%

DEN +17.7%

NYK -7.5%

NYK -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NYK	NBA	DEN	NYK	NBA
this game	15.5	16.5	15.2	88.9	86.7	101.7
season	14.8	16.1		101.5	100.0
opponent	15.8	15.0		98.8	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	14.6	15.7	18.7	15.5
NYK	15.2	18.1	15.7	17.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George McCloud	57	58	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.41	14	-12	26	15.9	14.8	1.03	17.2	15.2	1.99
Bryant Stith	39	40	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.50	10	-8	18	16.6	14.7	1.92	17.2	15.9	1.26
Nick Van Exel	71	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.41	2	0	2	15.7	14.9	0.77	15.6	19.7	-4.18
Antonio McDyess	57	58	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.56	-6	8	-14	15.8	14.9	0.89	15.5	18.2	-2.72
Keon Clark	52	50	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-9	20	15.5	15.5	-0.05	17.3	15.5	1.76
Raef LaFrentz	71	72	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	3	-4	15.3	16.4	-1.17	16.7	15.6	1.18
James Posey	34	34	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.36	-11	13	-24	14.4	16.1	-1.70	14.6	17.6	-2.98
Cory Alexander	19	20	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	2	-2	14.9	15.7	-0.77	19.7	15.6	4.18
Chauncey Billups	51	50	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.06	-8	10	-18	14.7	16.6	-1.92	15.9	17.2	-1.26

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Lang	24	24	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-6	10	15.3	16.9	-1.65	15.5	15.5	0.06
Kurt Thomas	61	60	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.19	4	-6	10	15.8	17.9	-2.11	16.4	13.7	2.65
Chris Dudley	25	26	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.02	-2	0	-2	17.8	16.0	1.86	14.9	15.7	-0.87
Charlie Ward	49	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	0	-2	16.4	16.7	-0.29	15.2	15.8	-0.61
Allan Houston	82	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.46	4	-6	10	15.9	22.2	-6.31	15.5	15.7	-0.27
Latrell Sprewell	80	79	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.40	-6	4	-10	16.2	19.0	-2.81	14.7	21.1	-6.37
Marcus Camby	46	46	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.47	-4	2	-6	17.4	15.6	1.78	15.7	15.3	0.40
Chris Childs	50	49	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.51	-5	3	-8	16.9	16.0	0.81	16.5	14.3	2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.8,0.74,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.47,0.68,0.71,0.84,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 87, WAS 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.77,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.73,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.64,0.85,0.73,0	92.4%
PHI 96, DET 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.73,0.76,0.54,0.77,0.72,0	91.3%
DEN 99, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.53,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.69,0	91.0%