NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	9.1 [99]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): +84.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Comeback	7.6 [16]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -26.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.85	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.85	0.26	0.60	0.02	17	88%	0.87	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	7	64%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	64%	0.04	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.05
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.1,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.01	10	65%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	11	27%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	8	35%	-0.11	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Kenny Satterfield	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.02	14	50%	-0.12	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.19	0.19	-0.00	0.19	-0.00	14	53%	0.21	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.06
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.00	18	60%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.08	-0.02	9	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	8	39%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.09	-0.14	0.01	12	38%	-0.18	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.27	-0.27	-0.03	-0.23	0.01	17	48%	-0.27	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.6	23.1	15.7	25.2	2.7	34.2	128.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +77.0%

MIN -7.6%

MIN -22.9%

MIN -0.4%

DEN +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	17.3	15.2	15.6	111.2	111.4	102.3
season	16.1	15.0		99.7	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.2		103.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	18.6	18.2	18.0	17.3
MIN	14.0	16.4	15.2	15.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	60	60	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.49	15	-14	29	17.0	17.9	-0.83	14.9	16.0	-1.08
Avery Johnson	70	69	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.51	5	-4	9	16.8	19.2	-2.42	15.0	16.2	-1.19
Raef LaFrentz	71	72	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.48	5	-4	9	17.3	17.3	-0.04	15.0	16.4	-1.48
George McCloud	44	44	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.54	-7	8	-15	18.0	16.6	1.42	15.6	14.9	0.68
Voshon Lenard	30	31	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.44	-7	8	-15	18.7	16.6	2.11	15.8	14.9	0.94
Calbert Cheaney	54	52	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.04	7	-6	13	16.3	18.9	-2.61	14.4	16.4	-1.97
Ryan Bowen	35	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	0	1	17.4	17.2	0.21	14.2	15.9	-1.72
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	14	14	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	4	-7	18.1	17.2	0.91	18.3	14.6	3.64
Kenny Satterfield	19	19	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	5	-9	19.2	16.8	2.42	16.2	15.0	1.19
Zendon Hamilton	48	46	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.01	-7	8	-15	17.0	17.7	-0.75	16.1	14.3	1.85

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	48	49	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.01	3	-4	7	15.0	15.5	-0.59	15.6	19.3	-3.72
Sam Mitchell	22	21	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-4	7	15.0	15.3	-0.24	16.5	17.6	-1.08
Rasho Nesterovic	47	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.11	-11	10	-21	16.0	14.3	1.66	17.8	16.7	1.12
Kevin Garnett	81	83	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.41	3	-4	7	15.4	13.7	1.64	17.7	12.2	5.51
Anthony Peeler	67	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.57	6	-7	13	14.7	16.9	-2.14	17.3	17.2	0.07
Felipe Lopez	33	32	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.51	1	-2	3	16.3	14.6	1.67	20.6	15.5	5.09
Chauncey Billups	72	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	2	-5	14.7	17.4	-2.70	16.5	20.9	-4.35
Wally Szczerbiak	70	71	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.53	-7	6	-13	15.3	14.9	0.36	17.2	17.6	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.53,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.69,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 87, WAS 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.77,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.73,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.64,0.85,0.73,0	92.0%
MIN 104, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.83,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.55,0.58,0	91.6%
DEN 100, ATL 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.66,0.48,0.58,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.71,0.43,0.58,0	91.2%