NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	8.5 [204]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +34.5%
Atlanta Hawks	96		Comeback	10.2 [56]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -44.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.34	0.00	0.36	0.02	18	52%	0.37	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.05
Francisco Elson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	4	90%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.01	10	73%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	13	48%	0.05	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Mark Pope	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Greg Buckner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	11	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Marcus Camby	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	18	44%	-0.08	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.06
Andre Miller	-0.45	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.31,-0.45	-0.17	-0.29	-0.01	8	28%	-0.17	5	-0.28	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	10	73%	0.14	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.11
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.05	0.00	6	72%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.05
Boris Diaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Collier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	24	42%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	12	47%	-0.01	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.02
Donta Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.22	-0.22	-0.06	-0.17	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.06	-0.21	-0.00	10	50%	-0.17	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.7	29.4	15.7	27.2	2.6	36.4	139.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +17.8%

DEN +16.5%

DEN +1.0%

DEN +20.0%

ATL -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ATL	NBA	DEN	ATL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.9	15.5	108.7	106.7	104.0
season	14.8	15.6		103.8	98.1
opponent	15.1	15.6		108.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	16.7	13.8	16.4	15.7
ATL	14.6	15.3	17.5	16.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	72	71	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.37	12	-8	20	15.6	16.3	-0.79	15.6	17.3	-1.70
Andre Miller	72	71	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.47	6	-2	8	15.1	18.0	-2.90	15.7	16.7	-0.97
Carmelo Anthony	74	73	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-3	10	16.0	14.6	1.46	15.9	15.9	0.05
Earl Boykins	66	62	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-1	6	15.8	15.5	0.37	16.7	14.1	2.63
Kenyon Martin	71	69	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-1	6	15.3	17.2	-1.89	15.7	16.8	-1.10
Mark Pope	0	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	6	-8	0.0	15.7	-15.73	20.0	15.9	4.12
Rodney White	1	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	6	-8	21.0	15.7	5.33	19.0	15.9	3.15
Bryon Russell	14	14	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.06	0	4	-4	16.0	15.7	0.32	19.1	15.3	3.73
DerMarr Johnson	32	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.13	2	2	0	15.8	15.7	0.08	15.1	16.4	-1.31
Greg Buckner	19	18	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	12	-20	16.6	15.5	1.14	13.1	16.6	-3.58
Francisco Elson	39	36	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.03	-5	9	-14	16.6	15.1	1.45	16.8	15.4	1.43

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	34	34	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.13	-4	0	-4	14.9	16.5	-1.62	14.7	16.3	-1.58
Josh Smith	56	57	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.12	-5	1	-6	16.7	14.6	2.10	15.3	16.4	-1.13
Jason Collier	20	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-2	0	15.9	15.9	-0.03	15.5	15.8	-0.29
Royal Ivey	26	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-2	0	18.5	14.9	3.62	14.8	16.1	-1.30
Obinna Ekezie	58	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.45	5	-9	14	15.4	16.9	-1.48	16.8	14.0	2.74
Josh Childress	63	64	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-2	0	15.0	18.0	-2.97	16.2	14.6	1.66
Tony Delk	59	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.46	1	-5	6	15.4	16.9	-1.55	16.3	14.6	1.62
Donta Smith	51	52	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	0	-4	16.5	15.2	1.31	15.3	16.3	-1.06
Antoine Walker	83	86	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.40	-7	3	-10	16.1	14.1	1.93	15.6	17.8	-2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.66,0.48,0.58,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.71,0.43,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 99, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.53,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.69,0	91.2%
HOU 75, UTA 72	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.88,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.55,0.43,0.42,0	90.8%
MIA 117, ORL 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.33,0.27,0	90.7%