NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	4.7 [864]		MVP	Cedric Ceballos (DAL): +7.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves	84		Comeback	1.2 [191]		LVP	Joe Smith (MIN): -18.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Ceballos	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.14	-0.00	0.06	18	66%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.03	13	59%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	27	49%	0.02	1	-0.03	11	82%	0.03
Hubert Davis	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Rick Hughes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Damon Jones	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	35%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Sean Rooks	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.03	9	62%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	13	38%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.11	0.00	-0.11	15	27%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dean Garrett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	0.05	10	58%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	19	49%	-0.01	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	6	26%	-0.13	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.19	-0.03	-0.03	15	31%	-0.12	5	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.7	31.1	14.7	29.3	2.4	30.6	133.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +41.1%

DAL +5.3%

DAL +9.6%

MIN -5.2%

MIN -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIN	NBA	DAL	MIN	NBA
this game	16.5	14.6	15.2	110.8	91.3	101.7
season	14.8	15.1		104.2	103.5
opponent	15.7	14.8		101.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.4	16.3	14.8	21.0	16.5
MIN	16.3	12.5	17.2	12.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hubert Davis	75	73	0.67	-0.17	0.83	-0.13	27	-8	35	16.7	15.8	0.82	15.0	13.2	1.79
Dirk Nowitzki	82	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.12	24	-5	29	16.6	15.6	0.97	14.8	13.5	1.34
Shawn Bradley	71	71	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.03	20	-1	21	16.2	17.3	-1.08	15.9	10.2	5.69
Cedric Ceballos	91	90	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.09	21	-2	23	16.5	14.5	2.04	14.8	5.0	9.84
Michael Finley	93	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	0	19	16.5	0.0	16.49	14.6	0.0	14.63
Sean Rooks	9	9	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	24	-29	18.2	16.3	1.91	8.6	15.3	-6.73
Rick Hughes	22	22	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.10	-7	26	-33	17.7	16.1	1.61	12.5	15.3	-2.74
Damon Jones	22	22	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	23	-27	14.2	17.2	-2.97	12.3	15.4	-3.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Sealy	45	44	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-23	27	13.3	15.9	-2.58	18.3	14.9	3.37
Tom Hammonds	5	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.10	-4	-15	11	4.8	15.2	-10.40	10.2	16.9	-6.76
William Avery	12	13	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.09	-6	-13	7	11.7	15.1	-3.31	17.8	16.3	1.48
Bobby Jackson	34	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-15	11	15.3	14.2	1.10	17.5	15.9	1.58
Dean Garrett	11	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.11	-8	-11	3	16.4	14.4	1.97	12.9	17.0	-4.07
Rasho Nesterovic	41	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.00	-6	-13	7	15.0	14.4	0.58	15.6	17.2	-1.64
Sam Mitchell	48	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-17	15	15.3	13.9	1.47	15.7	17.4	-1.63
Joe Smith	71	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-8	-3	14.3	15.6	-1.28	17.3	14.1	3.19
Terrell Brandon	58	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.05	-15	-4	-11	14.2	15.3	-1.10	15.9	17.5	-1.58
Anthony Peeler	67	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.10	-19	0	-19	14.2	15.8	-1.61	16.5	16.4	0.18
Kevin Garnett	68	69	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	0.05	-24	5	-29	16.5	9.3	7.17	16.5	16.6	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 99, POR 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
IND 106, PHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.18,0.21,0.11,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
DAL 93, SAS 72	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%