NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	4.3 [954]		MVP	Shawn Bradley (DAL): +8.7%
San Antonio Spurs	72		Comeback	1.1 [493]		LVP	Malik Rose (SAS): -22.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Bradley	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.00	0.03	8	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	10	70%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	7	47%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	12	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	24	47%	-0.02	3	-0.11	5	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	9	47%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	8	62%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mengke Bateer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	-0.09	5	20%	-0.00	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	4	64%	0.02	4	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	11	46%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	13	38%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.18	-0.04	0.00	6	39%	-0.08	6	-0.15	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.8	32.1	15.8	24.4	2.5	22.5	125.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.5%

SAS -8.8%

DAL +5.5%

DAL +17.8%

DAL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.6	15.5	15.5	97.9	75.0	101.6
season	15.1	15.7		108.6	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		96.9	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.3	15.5	11.7	18.7	14.6
SAS	15.5	13.9	17.1	15.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raja Bell	68	69	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.03	21	0	21	14.4	15.3	-0.88	16.3	13.6	2.63
Dirk Nowitzki	80	78	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.08	18	3	15	13.9	18.7	-4.79	15.2	16.8	-1.62
Steve Nash	63	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.23	19	2	17	14.2	15.5	-1.31	15.6	15.3	0.27
Shawn Bradley	33	36	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	8	5	14.4	14.8	-0.36	17.7	14.2	3.52
Nick Van Exel	56	55	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.12	13	8	5	14.5	14.9	-0.41	15.2	15.9	-0.67
Raef LaFrentz	57	58	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.07	11	10	1	15.0	14.1	0.88	15.1	16.2	-1.14
Adrian Griffin	44	45	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.13	4	17	-13	16.0	13.4	2.59	14.4	16.5	-2.11
Eduardo Najera	16	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	22	-23	15.3	14.5	0.82	13.0	16.0	-3.03
Avery Johnson	22	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	24	-27	18.9	13.4	5.51	14.8	15.7	-0.91

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mengke Bateer	20	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.14	-6	-15	9	15.6	15.5	0.10	18.0	13.8	4.21
Steve Kerr	45	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.17	-10	-11	1	15.6	15.5	0.07	15.7	13.7	1.91
Speedy Claxton	49	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	-10	-1	15.3	15.7	-0.40	15.9	13.3	2.60
Danny Ferry	47	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-14	7	15.7	15.3	0.36	16.1	13.1	2.98
David Robinson	57	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.10	-3	-18	15	14.3	17.3	-2.97	14.2	15.3	-1.05
Bruce Bowen	52	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-17	13	15.1	16.0	-0.88	13.8	15.6	-1.74
Manu Ginobili	21	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-9	-3	18.7	14.6	4.03	13.6	14.9	-1.25
Malik Rose	40	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.10	-13	-8	-5	15.7	15.4	0.39	12.9	15.8	-2.85
Kevin Willis	28	28	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-8	-5	17.3	14.8	2.49	13.0	15.3	-2.31
Tony Parker	47	47	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-11	1	15.7	15.3	0.40	13.3	15.9	-2.60
Steven Smith	74	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	-5	-11	14.9	17.6	-2.74	14.8	13.8	0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 101, VAN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.09,0.18,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
CHI 98, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
IND 108, NJN 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%