NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	4.4 [926]		MVP	John Salmons (CHI): +13.5%
Detroit Pistons	87		Comeback	1.0 [542]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -20.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.03	0.01	10	74%	0.15	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.01	-0.04	18	50%	0.09	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Tyrus Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	6	73%	0.07	3	-0.02	14	79%	0.02
James Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	6	23%	0.00	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	10	32%	-0.06	3	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	68%	0.06	8	-0.18	6	83%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.04	16	58%	0.15	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.07	18	52%	-0.02	1	-0.01	6	67%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	16	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.04	0.05	14	36%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.19	-0.05	-0.03	13	23%	-0.14	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.7	31.2	16.8	30.0	1.8	36.2	145.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +41.8%

CHI +12.9%

CHI +8.1%

DET -16.0%

CHI +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	13.9	16.7	15.3	102.1	93.5	106.0
season	14.7	16.8		101.9	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.7		109.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.0	12.4	12.5	15.1	13.9
DET	17.1	18.9	20.2	11.6	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	79	75	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.16	12	-1	13	14.2	12.2	1.97	17.0	15.3	1.65
Taj Gibson	42	42	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-4	19	13.6	14.1	-0.50	19.8	14.1	5.73
Luol Deng	62	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	1	9	14.5	12.6	1.87	17.7	14.9	2.86
John Salmons	54	51	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	1	9	13.0	15.0	-1.99	16.9	16.3	0.61
Joakim Noah	64	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	5	1	14.5	12.6	1.84	17.2	15.6	1.57
Brad Miller	32	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	6	-1	12.6	14.5	-1.84	15.6	17.2	-1.57
Kirk Hinrich	59	60	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.15	0	11	-11	14.2	13.3	0.86	16.0	17.8	-1.78
Tyrus Thomas	59	55	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	13	-15	13.7	14.1	-0.33	14.3	20.1	-5.73
James Johnson	29	30	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	12	-13	13.1	14.2	-1.08	14.5	17.7	-3.20

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	14	14	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-17	23	16.5	16.7	-0.20	12.9	14.0	-1.17
Jason Maxiell	12	11	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.05	6	-17	23	17.7	16.5	1.15	14.5	13.8	0.68
Austin Daye	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-13	15	16.2	16.7	-0.49	12.0	14.0	-1.96
Chucky Atkins	14	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.04	-5	-6	1	18.9	16.3	2.66	11.4	14.4	-2.97
Ben Gordon	70	72	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-11	11	15.5	20.1	-4.60	13.5	15.0	-1.47
Rodney Stuckey	66	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-8	5	15.4	19.9	-4.49	14.8	11.7	3.15
Chris Wilcox	27	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	0	-11	16.4	16.8	-0.37	13.6	14.0	-0.32
Tayshaun Prince	70	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-11	11	17.0	15.6	1.46	14.1	13.2	0.85
Jonas Jerebko	38	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-5	-1	15.8	17.2	-1.39	14.7	13.3	1.41
Ben Wallace	39	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	0	-11	19.4	14.7	4.68	14.1	13.6	0.51
Charlie Villanueva	55	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.08	-11	0	-11	16.3	17.2	-0.92	13.3	14.7	-1.46
Richard Hamilton	55	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.16	-22	11	-33	17.7	15.2	2.42	13.9	13.8	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 105, CHA 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
IND 108, NJN 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
DAL 93, SAS 72	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%