NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	86		Excitement	8.1 [232]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +12.8%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	1.4 [976]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -29.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.08	0.00	5	71%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.05
Chris Whitney	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jahidi White	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Mitch Richmond	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.05	0.07	-0.09	0.02	13	65%	0.04	1	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Richard Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.04	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Reggie Jordan	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1	0.01	-0.11	0.00	1	67%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.16
Tracy Murray	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	8	44%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ike Austin	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	11	55%	0.02	6	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2	-0.05	-0.15	-0.00	13	43%	-0.17	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.11
Rod Strickland	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.29	-0.18	-0.15	-0.04	9	20%	-0.17	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	0.00	10	65%	0.23	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.13,0.09	0.09	-0.03	0.12	-0.00	7	44%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	10	60%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	62%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	20	61%	0.03	5	-0.11	9	67%	-0.06
Anthony Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	2	33%	-0.02	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13	-0.13	-0.00	-0.10	0.03	16	50%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.4	28.9	15.7	26.3	1.8	36.0	132.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +48.8%

WAS -20.7%

MIA +1.0%

MIA +17.2%

MIA +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.2	96.6	98.9	101.7
season	15.5	15.7		101.1	101.2
opponent	15.9	14.8		98.2	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.9	15.2	18.2	14.2	16.1
MIA	13.8	19.1	16.0	15.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	20	22	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.06	7	-10	17	16.1	16.1	0.03	17.3	15.7	1.55
Chris Whitney	28	29	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.11	8	-11	19	16.2	16.0	0.15	17.9	15.2	2.65
Jahidi White	15	17	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.11	7	-10	17	16.4	16.0	0.39	16.5	16.0	0.53
Reggie Jordan	7	6	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-4	5	11.4	16.5	-5.05	15.0	16.2	-1.18
Michael Smith	51	52	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.19	1	-4	5	15.6	16.8	-1.19	17.4	14.4	3.00
Tracy Murray	28	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-7	11	15.9	16.2	-0.27	15.3	16.5	-1.25
Aaron Williams	37	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	0	-3	17.2	15.3	1.95	14.8	17.0	-2.28
Juwan Howard	62	61	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	5	-13	15.9	16.5	-0.58	16.2	15.8	0.45
Ike Austin	74	73	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.30	-10	7	-17	16.0	16.4	-0.39	16.0	16.5	-0.53
Rod Strickland	54	55	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	9	-21	16.6	15.2	1.40	15.3	17.4	-2.13
Mitch Richmond	69	68	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.35	-10	7	-17	16.1	16.1	-0.03	15.7	17.3	-1.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	83	82	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.40	10	-7	17	16.0	17.6	-1.60	16.4	11.9	4.58
Dan Majerle	61	60	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-5	13	16.6	15.1	1.52	15.7	16.9	-1.16
Jamal Mashburn	81	81	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-8	19	15.9	17.6	-1.62	16.3	13.9	2.42
P.J. Brown	70	73	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	0	3	15.6	17.8	-2.25	15.8	17.4	-1.66
Voshon Lenard	47	47	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	4	-5	15.2	17.1	-1.95	15.4	16.8	-1.34
Anthony Carter	30	31	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	-4	11	17.6	15.4	2.20	17.2	15.5	1.71
Rex Walters	32	30	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	8	-13	15.2	16.6	-1.37	16.6	15.8	0.79
Clar. Weatherspoon	27	23	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	10	-17	17.8	15.4	2.40	15.7	16.2	-0.46
Rodney Buford	19	18	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.05	-11	14	-25	16.7	15.9	0.74	15.2	16.3	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.72,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 70, ATL 75	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.52,0.55,0.71,0.86,0.83,1	92.8%
BOS 92, HOU 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.69,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.85,0.98,1	92.5%
DET 90, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.91,1	92.2%