NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	7.9 [264]		MVP	Matt Harpring (ORL): +15.1%
Washington Wizards	104		Comeback	2.1 [151]		LVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): -17.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Harpring	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.15	0.10	0.06	0.02	6	84%	0.15	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Monty Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	71%	0.10	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Darrell Armstrong	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	16	51%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,0,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.01	6	70%	0.12	3	-0.10	8	75%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.04
Chris Gatling	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	13	31%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.05	0.03	9	85%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Ike Austin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	8	62%	0.09	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	53%	-0.02	0	0.00	12	83%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	17	58%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	5	43%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Gerard King	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	4	56%	0.01	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	11	36%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	7	31%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Mitch Richmond	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	11	33%	-0.11	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	1.6	30.2	15.7	29.5	1.8	48.1	153.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +26.3%

ORL +12.8%

WAS -33.0%

ORL +43.5%

ORL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	13.2	14.9	15.2	102.9	103.0	101.7
season	13.6	15.5		100.4	101.1
opponent	14.8	15.4		104.4	99.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.5	15.0	10.9	13.5	13.2
WAS	14.2	13.8	17.4	14.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	73	71	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.50	7	-4	11	12.8	14.3	-1.52	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Darrell Armstrong	74	74	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-6	15	12.5	14.9	-2.41	14.6	15.8	-1.20
Bo Outlaw	68	66	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.51	5	-2	7	13.1	13.4	-0.21	14.6	15.4	-0.81
Matt Harpring	62	60	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.44	2	1	1	13.5	12.8	0.65	14.1	16.0	-1.89
John Amaechi	37	38	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	2	-1	14.2	12.7	1.54	14.7	15.0	-0.35
Michael Doleac	37	35	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	-1	5	14.6	12.4	2.17	16.3	14.2	2.16
Chris Gatling	29	27	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.08	5	-2	7	12.6	13.5	-0.88	15.3	14.7	0.59
Pat Garrity	30	30	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.16	3	0	3	10.8	14.2	-3.45	15.8	14.5	1.23
Monty Williams	35	35	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.09	-2	5	-7	14.6	12.5	2.12	15.0	14.8	0.20
Ben Wallace	40	38	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	11	-19	14.0	12.7	1.31	15.6	14.5	1.09
Chucky Atkins	35	31	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.15	-11	14	-25	13.1	13.3	-0.20	15.0	14.9	0.10

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Whitney	33	37	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.10	7	-10	17	15.1	14.8	0.28	12.5	13.6	-1.14
Jahidi White	21	24	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-6	9	14.5	15.0	-0.48	13.5	13.1	0.42
Richard Hamilton	37	40	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-4	5	15.6	14.5	1.18	12.5	13.7	-1.21
Gerard King	19	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-1	-1	14.9	14.9	-0.01	14.3	13.0	1.40
Tracy Murray	40	42	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.27	6	-9	15	13.9	15.6	-1.70	13.1	13.3	-0.13
Ike Austin	49	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-2	1	15.9	14.0	1.94	14.8	11.9	2.92
Michael Smith	56	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	1	-5	14.7	15.1	-0.38	13.2	13.3	-0.11
Aaron Williams	44	44	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	10	-23	15.7	14.3	1.34	13.4	13.1	0.25
Juwan Howard	71	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	0	-3	14.7	15.3	-0.62	12.5	14.7	-2.21
Mitch Richmond	64	64	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	1	-5	14.5	15.6	-1.18	13.7	12.5	1.21
Rod Strickland	71	72	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.47	-5	2	-7	14.7	15.5	-0.80	12.8	14.1	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.17,0.31,0.05,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 110, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.02,0.04,0	92.5%
BOS 91, TOR 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.28,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.01,0	92.5%
MEM 110, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.71,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.21,0.09,0.02,0	92.4%