NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	85		Excitement	8.2 [123]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +30.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	90		Comeback	2.4 [395]		LVP	Sam Mitchell (MIN): -36.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.18,0.18,0.13	0.01	0.10	-0.02	9	50%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,0.02	-0.04	0.08	0.02	7	69%	0.13	4	-0.11	15	80%	0.12
Muggsy Bogues	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.05
Adonal Foyle	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	13	57%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Terry Cummings	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	14	44%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
John Starks	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.09	0.02	12	37%	-0.06	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.04	-0.02	11	27%	-0.08	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.07,-0.01,0.17,0.31	0.31	0.02	0.27	-0.02	21	56%	0.36	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.06
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.12	0.12	-0.02	0.14	-0.01	6	50%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.11
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrae Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.19	0.01	-0.01	20	27%	-0.11	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.36	-0.36	-0.08	-0.25	0.03	21	39%	-0.33	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	27.1	15.5	23.3	2.4	41.8	136.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +6.6%

GSW -13.8%

MIN +34.9%

MIN +16.9%

MIN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIN	NBA	GSW	MIN	NBA
this game	16.1	13.8	15.8	88.5	92.8	99.6
season	15.9	15.0		95.1	98.6
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.6	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.6	18.0	14.8	16.1	16.1
MIN	12.7	14.7	15.2	12.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Cummings	53	53	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.43	9	-14	23	16.9	15.1	1.82	14.2	13.2	1.02
Adonal Foyle	13	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	4	-13	18.2	15.7	2.50	12.2	14.0	-1.83
Bimbo Coles	56	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	0	-5	15.1	17.4	-2.23	13.7	14.0	-0.29
Muggsy Bogues	40	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-5	5	17.4	15.1	2.23	14.0	13.7	0.29
John Starks	77	80	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.39	2	-7	9	15.6	18.2	-2.60	13.9	13.2	0.66
Erick Dampier	74	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-1	-3	16.0	16.5	-0.50	14.1	12.8	1.31
Donyell Marshall	84	84	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-3	1	15.7	19.0	-3.35	13.9	12.8	1.17
Chris Mills	57	57	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.00	-17	12	-29	15.8	16.5	-0.70	12.9	15.0	-2.11

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrell Brandon	83	82	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.38	7	-2	9	13.6	14.6	-1.00	16.3	14.6	1.67
Kevin Garnett	89	87	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.27	9	-4	13	13.6	15.5	-1.87	16.2	14.8	1.43
Anthony Peeler	84	82	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	-1	7	13.5	15.3	-1.76	16.1	15.9	0.25
Sam Mitchell	86	84	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	1	3	13.6	15.5	-1.99	15.9	17.3	-1.44
Tom Hammonds	32	30	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	4	-3	13.9	13.7	0.14	19.1	14.7	4.35
Joe Smith	50	51	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.27	-5	10	-15	14.6	13.0	1.60	15.6	16.6	-1.08
Andrae Patterson	9	10	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	5	-5	15.1	13.6	1.46	16.0	16.1	-0.08
Dean Garrett	21	23	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.06	4	1	3	15.3	13.4	1.92	15.1	16.4	-1.24
Bobby Jackson	31	31	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	6	-7	13.1	14.1	-0.96	14.1	17.0	-2.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.6,0.71,0.54,0.45,0.72,0.45,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 91, LAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.57,0.73,1	92.3%
UTA 88, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.79,0.86,0.77,0.64,0.46,0.39,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	91.6%
SAS 97, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.73,1	91.3%