NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	7.8 [261]		MVP	Rick Fox (LAL): +20.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	94		Comeback	1.4 [777]		LVP	Steven Smith (SAS): -21.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	4	87%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	12	56%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Charles Smith	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Amal McCaskill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	7	64%	0.05	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	11	54%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
David Robinson	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	11	36%	-0.08	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,-0.12,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	26	46%	0.06	5	-0.24	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	4	11%	-0.07	1	-0.15	1	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.06	0.15	0.01	6	92%	0.24	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	42%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	1	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	19	57%	0.12	3	-0.10	9	100%	0.11
Brian Shaw	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.06	0.02	21	52%	-0.03	6	-0.15	6	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	26.0	16.5	26.7	2.6	34.6	131.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +9.1%

LAL +15.0%

SAS -5.4%

LAL +37.6%

SAS -6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.3	15.6	97.8	101.1	102.3
season	15.8	15.3		104.3	106.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		99.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.6	16.0	15.4	16.9	15.7
LAL	14.2	13.5	16.6	17.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cherokee Parks	7	7	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-6	9	18.6	15.4	3.13	18.1	15.1	3.08
Terry Porter	30	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.12	3	-6	9	15.7	15.7	-0.02	13.5	16.2	-2.71
Amal McCaskill	7	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	3	-9	22.7	15.1	7.61	12.9	15.5	-2.63
Charles Smith	54	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.14	1	-4	5	14.2	17.7	-3.51	15.0	15.7	-0.73
Malik Rose	36	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-1	-1	16.3	15.3	1.07	15.1	15.4	-0.31
David Robinson	79	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-5	7	15.1	19.1	-4.08	15.3	15.4	-0.13
Antonio Daniels	62	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-4	5	16.3	14.4	1.89	15.2	15.5	-0.28
Tony Parker	50	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.29	-5	2	-7	15.7	15.7	0.05	16.7	13.6	3.14
Tim Duncan	75	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	1	-5	15.7	15.4	0.36	15.5	14.6	0.91
Steven Smith	65	64	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.28	-8	5	-13	15.5	16.0	-0.51	15.3	15.3	-0.08

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	64	64	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.38	11	-8	19	15.1	15.8	-0.68	14.5	18.2	-3.68
Kobe Bryant	79	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.38	6	-3	9	15.2	15.6	-0.42	15.1	18.9	-3.77
Derek Fisher	55	56	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.44	0	3	-3	14.9	15.8	-0.89	16.4	14.6	1.75
Mark Madsen	22	19	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	-8	19	11.4	16.5	-5.14	15.6	15.7	-0.06
Shaquille O'Neal	78	79	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.39	-4	7	-11	16.2	10.3	5.91	15.9	14.6	1.22
Robert Horry	52	54	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.44	-8	11	-19	16.1	14.3	1.78	16.5	14.5	2.05
Samaki Walker	34	33	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	-4	11	14.4	15.8	-1.34	14.1	16.6	-2.51
Lindsey Hunter	38	37	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	0	3	15.8	14.9	0.89	14.6	16.4	-1.75
Mitch Richmond	11	10	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	4	-5	15.2	15.3	-0.12	19.7	15.2	4.51
Brian Shaw	3	3	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	5	-7	17.3	15.2	2.11	16.3	15.7	0.68
Devean George	29	30	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.01	-8	11	-19	15.8	15.1	0.68	17.9	14.6	3.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 92, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.79,0.69,0.84,1	94.5%
GSW 85, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.6,0.71,0.54,0.45,0.72,0.45,0.58,1	92.3%
GSW 74, SAS 76	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.71,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.85,1	91.8%