NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	81		Excitement	6.9 [247]		MVP	Ron Harper (CHI): +14.3%
Boston Celtics	87		Comeback	1.5 [645]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -27.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Harper	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	13	63%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Kornel David	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Cory Carr	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rusty LaRue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Booth	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bill Wennington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.08	0.02	19	55%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Charles R. Jones	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.03	-0.04	8	35%	-0.09	2	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Randy Brown	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-0.02	12	23%	-0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dickey Simpkins	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.2	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	10	31%	-0.17	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	5	73%	0.13	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	13	69%	0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	5	80%	0.09	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	19	53%	0.14	4	-0.12	5	80%	0.01
Marlon Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Minor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.01	10	45%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.12	-0.16	-0.01	12	38%	-0.18	4	-0.10	2	0%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	1.7	27.2	15.7	21.5	1.0	36.8	124.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +68.4%

CHI -15.2%

BOS +9.7%

CHI -16.8%

BOS +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	17.5	15.3	15.8	92.0	98.9	99.6
season	16.7	15.0		90.6	98.1
opponent	15.8	15.4		100.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.4	16.8	19.1	20.8	17.5
BOS	13.3	15.2	15.2	18.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rusty LaRue	1	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-6	6	5.0	17.6	-12.61	21.0	15.1	5.94
Keith Booth	13	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.09	-7	1	-8	16.7	17.6	-0.91	16.8	15.0	1.86
Bill Wennington	14	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	0	-6	19.8	17.0	2.76	18.4	14.7	3.77
Kornel David	45	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-2	-2	17.6	17.3	0.23	16.1	14.4	1.65
Cory Carr	30	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-1	-4	18.7	16.8	1.82	16.8	14.4	2.44
Ron Harper	52	52	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-7	8	18.0	16.7	1.35	15.1	15.5	-0.36
Dickey Simpkins	69	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-6	6	16.8	20.0	-3.23	14.4	18.6	-4.21
Charles R. Jones	70	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-3	0	17.8	16.0	1.84	15.4	14.8	0.54
Randy Brown	73	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	0	-6	16.7	21.0	-4.26	14.3	18.9	-4.63
Toni Kukoc	73	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-6	6	17.4	17.8	-0.40	14.7	17.8	-3.12

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	74	74	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.6	18.5	-3.85	16.8	20.8	-3.95
Dana Barros	80	80	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	0	6	15.4	13.6	1.80	17.8	13.7	4.09
Ron Mercer	83	84	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	2	2	15.0	19.0	-3.96	17.4	18.7	-1.35
Paul Pierce	63	64	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	3	0	14.3	17.7	-3.43	16.9	19.1	-2.22
Tony Battie	32	31	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	2	2	16.8	14.4	2.44	20.3	15.9	4.31
Greg Minor	30	29	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	-1	8	17.4	14.1	3.30	18.6	16.9	1.62
Vitaly Potapenko	49	50	0.17	0.34	-0.17	0.25	-3	9	-12	14.6	16.2	-1.60	16.0	19.4	-3.49
Walter McCarty	20	20	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	3	0	17.5	14.6	2.90	19.8	16.8	3.09
Marlon Garnett	9	8	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	6	-6	13.9	15.4	-1.53	13.7	17.8	-4.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.53,0.53,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 98, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.61,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.79,0.75,0.93,1	93.7%
DAL 105, DEN 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.68,0.9,1	92.9%
MEM 85, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.9,0.92,1	92.8%