NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	86		Excitement	5.9 [382]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +10.7%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	1.1 [723]		LVP	Jason Caffey (GSW): -17.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	8	72%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bimbo Coles	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	7	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Muggsy Bogues	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
John Starks	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	20	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	8	22%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Adonal Foyle	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	6	32%	-0.10	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.04
Terry Cummings	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	11	21%	-0.13	0	0.00	6	67%	0.02
Erick Dampier	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	8	30%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Caffey	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.04	0.03	7	31%	-0.09	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	18	57%	0.15	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	86%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.02	-0.03	17	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	20	55%	-0.05
Sean Elliott	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	14	41%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Mario Elie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.7	28.2	15.8	28.0	1.5	34.6	138.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.2%

SAS +6.6%

GSW -7.0%

SAS +9.8%

SAS +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	17.2	14.9	15.8	95.6	104.5	99.6
season	15.9	15.9		95.1	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.5		92.7	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	17.1	17.8	16.2	18.0	17.2
SAS	16.4	13.5	15.1	14.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donyell Marshall	30	31	0.27	-0.77	1.05	-0.11	13	-20	33	16.5	17.6	-1.12	15.6	14.5	1.11
Muggsy Bogues	39	38	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.25	10	-17	27	17.3	17.2	0.11	15.1	14.8	0.37
Chris Mills	58	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.32	10	-17	27	17.9	16.0	1.88	16.0	13.1	2.90
Erick Dampier	31	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	0	-7	17.5	17.1	0.46	15.0	14.9	0.12
Terry Cummings	48	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-5	3	16.9	17.6	-0.66	14.9	15.0	-0.07
Jason Caffey	45	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-2	-3	16.5	18.0	-1.47	14.9	14.9	0.02
Adonal Foyle	41	40	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	4	-15	19.1	15.7	3.45	15.1	14.8	0.37
Antawn Jamison	44	43	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	9	-25	17.7	16.8	0.94	14.5	15.3	-0.75
Bimbo Coles	54	54	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	8	-23	16.9	17.8	-0.89	14.2	16.0	-1.82
John Starks	60	59	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.24	-12	5	-17	16.2	19.2	-2.98	14.2	16.4	-2.23

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Elie	65	65	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.25	16	-9	25	14.3	16.7	-2.39	17.8	15.9	1.89
David Robinson	70	69	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.22	12	-5	17	14.6	15.9	-1.30	17.9	15.1	2.74
Tim Duncan	76	74	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	-3	13	15.3	12.5	2.88	17.6	15.5	2.12
Avery Johnson	47	47	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.01	17	-10	27	14.1	15.8	-1.73	17.5	17.0	0.51
Sean Elliott	51	52	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.00	9	-2	11	14.3	15.8	-1.56	16.7	18.0	-1.26
Jerome Kersey	34	35	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	8	-9	17.2	13.5	3.70	18.5	16.4	2.08
Malik Rose	15	18	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	6	-5	12.1	15.5	-3.35	15.3	17.7	-2.39
Will Perdue	17	19	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.07	-9	16	-25	16.6	14.5	2.13	15.3	17.8	-2.51
Jaren Jackson	28	28	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	17	-27	14.9	15.0	-0.09	15.4	18.1	-2.64
Antonio Daniels	20	21	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.05	-13	20	-33	17.0	14.3	2.68	16.0	17.6	-1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.86,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 96, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.78,0.7,0.81,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.95,1,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1	94.4%
IND 98, SAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.2%
PHI 82, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	93.9%