NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	5.8 [685]		MVP	Matt Bonner (TOR): +22.8%
Toronto Raptors	106		Comeback	1.0 [1175]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -15.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	17	51%	0.10	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	8	65%	0.06	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	14	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	8	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	10%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	21%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Francis	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	22	49%	-0.02	5	-0.14	11	82%	0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.08	-0.02	7	87%	0.23	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.08	-0.04	14	53%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	12	59%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	9	62%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Pape Sow	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.04	13	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	10	57%	0.04	4	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	17	37%	-0.08	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.5	29.4	16.7	27.7	2.0	29.3	135.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +33.9%

TOR +4.1%

ORL -0.5%

TOR +12.2%

TOR +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.3	15.6	15.5	98.0	111.6	104.0
season	14.3	15.1		102.9	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.3	14.5	15.6	12.7	14.3
TOR	14.5	14.9	14.4	18.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	36	37	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.23	10	-20	30	13.6	14.7	-1.14	15.1	15.8	-0.74
Stacey Augmon	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.08	3	-13	16	15.6	14.2	1.36	21.4	15.2	6.17
Pat Garrity	13	13	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-6	2	9.9	15.0	-5.05	16.0	15.5	0.51
Kelvin Cato	57	54	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-6	2	15.1	13.2	1.83	15.2	16.1	-0.91
Tony Battie	50	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-5	0	14.2	14.4	-0.22	15.2	16.0	-0.77
Hedo Turkoglu	89	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-2	-6	14.3	14.7	-0.40	15.3	17.9	-2.62
Dwight Howard	76	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-3	-4	14.6	13.5	1.10	16.0	14.0	2.06
Steve Francis	95	92	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.12	-11	1	-12	14.1	20.0	-5.87	15.2	26.3	-11.13
Jameer Nelson	69	66	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.01	-24	14	-38	14.9	12.9	1.95	16.2	14.1	2.14

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	82	85	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-4	18	15.8	14.2	1.63	14.6	12.7	1.86
Morris Peterson	82	85	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-2	14	15.4	16.5	-1.05	14.4	13.7	0.71
Jalen Rose	78	81	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	1	8	15.3	16.8	-1.54	14.0	15.6	-1.55
Rafer Alston	69	71	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	5	0	15.2	16.5	-1.35	14.1	14.7	-0.60
Donyell Marshall	53	53	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	5	0	15.9	15.1	0.74	14.2	14.4	-0.13
Milt Palacio	26	27	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	5	0	16.5	15.2	1.35	14.7	14.1	0.60
Matt Bonner	47	48	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	12	-14	16.1	15.1	1.00	14.0	14.6	-0.60
Rafael Araujo	37	39	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	8	-6	15.2	15.8	-0.52	14.9	13.9	1.07
Pape Sow	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	10	-10	1.0	15.7	-14.71	0.0	14.5	-14.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.78,0.7,0.81,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.95,1,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 86, SAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.86,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,1,1	94.4%
POR 97, MIN 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.95,1	94.1%
MIL 85, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.6%