NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	4.8 [520]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): +10.4%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.0 [713]		LVP	Cory Alexander (DEN): -10.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	-0.00	0.02	7	100%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	3	33%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.07	0.06	-0.03	27	53%	0.12	5	-0.10	10	60%	-0.04
Steve Kerr	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	62%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andrew Gaze	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	67%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Sean Elliott	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	7	56%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	18	49%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	9	61%	0.05	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.06	20	60%	0.05	2	-0.07	8	62%	-0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	0.04	9	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	11	46%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	24.7	14.8	25.2	1.6	26.7	120.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +34.7%

SAS +1.6%

SAS +14.6%

DEN -0.8%

DEN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	17.1	15.2	15.8	119.1	107.9	99.6
season	15.9	15.5		101.1	100.7
opponent	15.6	15.9		107.6	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	19.1	15.5	16.1	17.9	17.1
DEN	15.1	14.5	16.6	14.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	85	86	0.50	-0.01	0.51	0.15	12	-2	14	17.3	12.2	5.09	15.4	11.0	4.40
Steve Kerr	50	49	0.41	0.08	0.32	0.09	11	-1	12	17.9	16.1	1.89	15.7	14.7	0.95
David Robinson	63	64	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	-2	14	16.5	18.5	-1.96	15.0	15.8	-0.71
Sean Elliott	56	56	0.27	0.22	0.05	-0.02	10	0	10	16.5	18.2	-1.75	15.1	15.6	-0.52
Avery Johnson	66	66	0.25	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	3	4	16.4	19.3	-2.90	14.9	16.3	-1.43
Antonio Daniels	23	23	0.24	0.25	-0.01	0.15	3	7	-4	19.3	16.4	2.90	16.3	14.9	1.43
Jerome Kersey	31	31	0.22	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	8	-6	18.5	16.4	2.15	16.2	14.7	1.50
Jaren Jackson	51	51	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	3	4	16.5	17.9	-1.46	15.3	15.2	0.02
Will Perdue	26	25	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.25	-2	12	-14	18.5	16.5	1.96	15.8	15.0	0.71
Andrew Gaze	2	2	0.00	0.49	-0.49	0.06	-2	12	-14	13.5	17.2	-3.70	5.5	15.5	-9.97
Malik Rose	4	3	-0.01	0.50	-0.51	0.05	-2	12	-14	12.2	17.3	-5.09	11.0	15.4	-4.40

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Taylor	21	21	-0.01	-0.48	0.47	0.11	-4	-6	2	15.6	15.1	0.42	17.2	17.1	0.10
Carl Herrera	37	34	-0.04	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-14	18	14.1	16.1	-2.00	17.8	16.7	1.06
Danny Fortson	23	26	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.05	-9	-1	-8	16.6	14.8	1.84	16.8	17.3	-0.48
Bryant Stith	30	29	-0.23	-0.26	0.03	-0.11	-4	-6	2	17.3	14.2	3.05	15.5	17.9	-2.37
Cory Alexander	74	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	-4	-2	14.9	17.1	-2.27	16.8	18.8	-2.03
Keon Clark	56	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-5	0	14.8	16.0	-1.20	16.4	18.4	-2.04
Antonio McDyess	62	62	-0.38	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	0	-10	15.8	13.9	1.95	17.6	16.0	1.54
Nick Van Exel	80	81	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.19	-8	-2	-6	14.8	19.2	-4.42	17.6	12.5	5.07
Eric Williams	62	62	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.25	-8	-2	-6	15.2	15.4	-0.18	17.6	15.9	1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 95, NJN 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
ATL 97, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.33,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.15,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
CHI 95, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.28,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.01,0	94.4%