NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	6.2 [334]		MVP	Derek Harper (LAL): +11.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	106		Comeback	2.5 [397]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -11.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	20	53%	0.03	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.01
Steve Kerr	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Gerard King	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
David Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	7	50%	-0.02	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.04
Mario Elie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	14	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Jerome Kersey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	14	50%	-0.05	2	-0.06	12	75%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	9	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	9	90%	0.20	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	75%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.04	-0.06	19	50%	0.11	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	0.00	17	61%	0.15	4	-0.11	12	50%	-0.08
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	4	70%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.02
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	12%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	31.8	16.6	29.3	1.7	36.2	144.4
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +69.9%

SAS -14.0%

LAL +1.7%

SAS -9.4%

LAL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.0	15.8	100.0	112.8	99.6
season	15.9	14.9		101.1	104.7
opponent	15.8	15.9		102.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	16.7	16.0	14.0	15.7
LAL	16.5	14.7	12.8	16.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	14.0	15.7	-1.72	8.0	15.0	-7.03
Steve Kerr	34	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.10	2	-14	16	15.1	16.0	-0.88	14.7	15.1	-0.48
Jaren Jackson	24	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-7	2	16.4	15.4	0.93	14.4	15.1	-0.73
Jerome Kersey	35	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.14	1	-13	14	16.0	15.5	0.51	14.5	15.2	-0.70
Malik Rose	26	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-7	2	15.6	15.7	-0.14	12.9	15.7	-2.83
Tim Duncan	78	78	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-7	2	15.6	16.2	-0.69	15.0	14.9	0.10
Gerard King	19	18	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-4	-4	15.8	15.6	0.20	12.9	15.4	-2.56
David Robinson	48	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-2	-8	15.8	15.6	0.23	16.7	13.2	3.49
Mario Elie	73	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-8	4	15.2	17.4	-2.25	14.8	15.6	-0.82
Avery Johnson	58	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.05	-14	2	-16	16.1	15.1	1.01	15.3	14.5	0.79
Sean Elliott	73	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	0	-12	15.8	15.1	0.75	15.6	12.7	2.89

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	77	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-5	22	15.6	12.1	3.47	16.1	14.1	1.94
Derek Harper	49	51	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-4	20	13.9	16.1	-2.26	16.2	15.0	1.21
Kobe Bryant	80	81	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	0	12	15.4	12.1	3.31	15.8	15.1	0.70
Rick Fox	38	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	7	-2	15.3	14.7	0.56	15.4	15.9	-0.54
Elden Campbell	38	39	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	6	0	14.3	15.4	-1.17	14.7	16.4	-1.69
Eddie Jones	68	69	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	6	0	14.5	16.3	-1.81	15.9	15.2	0.66
Sean Rooks	37	36	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	10	-8	13.5	15.9	-2.43	15.0	16.1	-1.15
Corie Blount	36	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	13	-14	15.9	14.4	1.46	16.6	15.1	1.42
Ruben Patterson	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	11	-10	6.0	15.2	-9.15	14.0	15.7	-1.72
Derek Fisher	45	43	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	16	-20	16.1	13.9	2.26	15.0	16.2	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.48,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.72,0.85,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 89, CHH 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	94.8%
POR 89, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%
GSW 100, OKC 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.77,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.99,1	93.5%