NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	89		Excitement	5.7 [641]		MVP	Hersey Hawkins (SEA): +11.0%
Charlotte Hornets	97		Comeback	2.2 [661]		LVP	Shawn Kemp (SEA): -13.2%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hersey Hawkins	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.03	-0.05	8	60%	0.11	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.02
Sam Perkins	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.04	10	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Ehlo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jim McIlvaine	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Larry Stewart	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Detlef Schrempf	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	13	52%	-0.03	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	17	46%	-0.00	4	-0.13	3	33%	-0.04
Shawn Kemp	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	16	56%	0.05	6	-0.18	9	100%	0.05

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.06	-0.03	9	61%	0.11	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	8	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.02	0.03	20	57%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Tony Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	13	46%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dell Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	15	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	23.3	14.8	21.5	1.8	30.4	116.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +18.1%

CHH +3.4%

CHH +8.9%

CHH +15.4%

CHH +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	CHH	NBA	SEA	CHH	NBA
this game	15.7	16.4	15.6	100.0	107.8	104.4
season	14.9	15.7		108.9	108.0
opponent	16.0	16.2		106.5	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	14.3	14.7	19.4	15.2	15.7
CHH	14.5	16.7	16.6	18.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jim McIlvaine	33	34	0.01	-0.50	0.51	-0.02	1	-9	10	15.2	16.1	-0.84	15.0	17.3	-2.35
Larry Stewart	15	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-5	2	16.1	15.7	0.39	18.0	16.1	1.88
Eric Snow	28	27	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-3	-2	16.9	15.2	1.68	14.7	17.2	-2.47
Craig Ehlo	36	35	-0.23	-0.26	0.04	-0.17	-2	-6	4	16.5	15.2	1.23	17.0	16.1	0.93
Hersey Hawkins	64	67	-0.31	-0.18	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-7	6	15.2	17.2	-1.97	16.6	15.9	0.76
Detlef Schrempf	75	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-1	-6	15.4	17.5	-2.09	16.3	17.0	-0.68
Sam Perkins	51	50	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	0	-8	16.6	14.6	2.03	17.5	15.0	2.49
Gary Payton	66	69	-0.43	-0.06	-0.37	-0.26	-6	-2	-4	15.4	16.6	-1.17	16.9	15.0	1.81
Shawn Kemp	77	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.26	-9	1	-10	15.6	16.6	-0.97	16.0	19.4	-3.44

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Rice	79	78	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.23	12	-4	16	16.6	15.5	1.12	16.1	13.4	2.71
Muggsy Bogues	68	69	0.54	-0.05	0.59	0.16	13	-5	18	16.0	17.9	-1.89	15.6	16.2	-0.66
Vlade Divac	65	66	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-3	14	16.0	17.5	-1.50	15.4	16.7	-1.29
Dell Curry	74	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.26	7	1	6	16.1	18.1	-1.98	15.8	15.6	0.23
Anthony Mason	74	73	0.39	0.10	0.29	0.24	5	3	2	17.1	13.4	3.72	15.8	15.4	0.45
Matt Geiger	38	37	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	6	-4	15.5	17.1	-1.66	16.2	15.4	0.72
Tony Smith	2	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	9	-10	19.0	16.4	2.62	15.0	15.8	-0.77
Anthony Goldwire	22	20	-0.05	0.54	-0.59	0.10	-5	13	-18	17.9	16.0	1.89	16.2	15.6	0.66
Scott Burrell	28	28	-0.07	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	12	-16	17.3	16.0	1.29	14.8	16.2	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 94, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.48,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.72,0.85,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.8%
POR 89, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
BOS 87, CHH 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%