NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	6.3 [557]		MVP	Kelenna Azubuike (GSW): +29.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Comeback	2.4 [321]		LVP	Marco Belinelli (GSW): -16.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelenna Azubuike	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.20	0.11	0.01	12	86%	0.35	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
CJ Watson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	10	73%	0.16	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.02	7	72%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	55%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Andris Biedrins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	16	42%	0.00	4	-0.13	8	75%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.17	-0.03	-0.05	8	12%	-0.06	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.12	0.12	-0.03	19	60%	0.29	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.06	-0.02	16	57%	0.18	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.02
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	18	58%	0.13	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.02	8	58%	0.10	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.7	28.1	15.7	26.1	1.8	34.0	134.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +10.5%

GSW -1.9%

OKC +25.6%

OKC +14.5%

OKC +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	OKC	NBA	GSW	OKC	NBA
this game	13.9	15.7	15.5	103.1	109.2	106.4
season	13.8	14.9		107.3	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.0		106.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.3	13.6	14.3	13.2	13.9
OKC	14.5	14.6	17.0	16.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandan Wright	40	41	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.14	10	-17	27	14.6	13.4	1.21	15.4	15.8	-0.43
Anthony Morrow	5	5	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.00	-3	-4	1	17.2	13.7	3.52	7.8	16.1	-8.29
Andris Biedrins	72	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-6	5	13.8	14.0	-0.18	15.6	15.8	-0.23
Marco Belinelli	63	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-2	-3	13.8	14.1	-0.30	15.4	16.2	-0.83
Jamal Crawford	71	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-3	-1	13.8	14.0	-0.18	15.9	15.1	0.78
Stephen Jackson	83	86	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	13.5	15.9	-2.41	16.0	13.2	2.75
Ronny Turiaf	29	27	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	3	-13	14.1	13.8	0.34	16.6	15.3	1.23
CJ Watson	60	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	0	-7	13.9	13.8	0.09	16.0	15.1	0.89
Kelenna Azubuike	62	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	3	-13	13.7	14.2	-0.52	15.4	16.1	-0.71

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	91	88	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	-1	9	16.0	11.7	4.25	13.7	15.8	-2.11
Kevin Durant	91	91	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	1	5	15.5	17.6	-2.05	14.0	12.0	1.99
Chris Wilcox	74	73	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.18	9	-2	11	15.5	16.0	-0.50	13.6	14.5	-0.90
Earl Watson	70	70	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.24	7	0	7	15.7	15.6	0.03	13.7	14.3	-0.54
Russell Westbrook	65	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	5	-3	15.2	16.5	-1.24	14.0	13.6	0.34
Desmond Mason	37	38	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	7	-7	16.5	15.2	1.28	14.2	13.7	0.52
Damien Wilkins	38	38	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	2	3	15.2	15.9	-0.74	13.8	13.9	-0.13
Robert Swift	24	24	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.11	-2	9	-11	16.0	15.5	0.50	14.5	13.6	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.77,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 89, CHH 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	93.5%
SAS 94, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.48,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.72,0.85,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.5%
IND 101, TOR 110	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.71,0.72,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.92,1	93.4%