NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	101		Excitement	6.8 [424]		MVP	Troy Murphy (IND): +26.5%
Toronto Raptors	110		Comeback	2.7 [813]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -23.6%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.15	0.11	-0.01	10	83%	0.28	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	13	71%	0.17	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Travis Diener	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	83%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kareem Rush	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Harrison	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	14	41%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Jeff Foster	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Shawne Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.09	0.05	12	41%	-0.12	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.10	-0.15	-0.02	12	54%	0.02	7	-0.26	2	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.09	0.00	8	88%	0.24	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.07	0.02	10	62%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.01	7	69%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Maceo Baston	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	0.00	9	67%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jorge Garbajosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	15	51%	0.10	4	-0.13	13	92%	0.05
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.01	0.05	12	56%	0.03	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.0	29.1	15.5	25.6	1.7	33.5	133.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +39.3%

TOR +1.9%

IND -7.0%

TOR +11.9%

TOR +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	TOR	NBA	IND	TOR	NBA
this game	14.4	15.2	15.4	104.1	113.4	105.7
season	13.8	15.6		104.5	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		105.6	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.1	14.0	16.6	13.3	14.4
TOR	15.8	13.7	16.1	15.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kareem Rush	24	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-9	9	12.9	15.0	-2.08	14.9	15.4	-0.50
Jeff Foster	49	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-7	5	15.2	13.7	1.50	15.5	15.0	0.52
David Harrison	15	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.12	-9	0	-9	12.5	14.8	-2.26	12.4	15.8	-3.36
Jermaine O'Neal	63	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-9	9	15.0	13.4	1.68	16.6	12.4	4.24
Travis Diener	32	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	-1	-7	12.5	15.4	-2.90	13.0	16.4	-3.36
Mike Dunleavy	72	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-6	3	15.0	12.8	2.16	15.4	14.8	0.66
Shawne Williams	33	31	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.06	-12	3	-15	13.5	14.9	-1.41	13.3	16.2	-2.92
Jamaal Tinsley	66	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-8	7	15.5	12.2	3.35	16.4	13.0	3.36
Troy Murphy	57	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-4	-1	13.5	15.8	-2.39	14.8	15.9	-1.09
Danny Granger	74	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-4	-1	14.9	13.1	1.78	15.6	14.1	1.50

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	51	52	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.13	16	-7	23	14.1	16.5	-2.34	13.4	15.7	-2.32
Jorge Garbajosa	50	51	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-1	11	15.3	15.2	0.11	13.5	15.4	-1.89
Carlos Delfino	51	54	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	-3	15	14.0	16.6	-2.63	13.8	15.3	-1.54
Anthony Parker	59	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	6	-3	16.4	13.5	2.83	14.6	14.2	0.37
Jason Kapono	45	47	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	0	9	14.1	16.3	-2.20	13.8	15.1	-1.31
Kris Humphries	24	27	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	-1	11	12.7	16.1	-3.32	14.6	14.4	0.16
Chris Bosh	73	70	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	10	-11	16.1	12.7	3.32	14.4	14.6	-0.16
Andrea Bargnani	11	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	10	-11	14.5	15.3	-0.79	11.1	14.9	-3.78
Maceo Baston	33	31	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	12	-15	16.6	14.5	2.11	17.2	13.2	4.04
Jamario Moon	39	37	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.10	-6	15	-21	16.6	14.4	2.20	16.3	13.3	3.00
T.J. Ford	49	48	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	13	-17	15.6	14.9	0.65	15.4	13.5	1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.71,0.72,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, SEA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1	93.5%
GSW 100, OKC 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.77,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.99,1	93.4%
VAN 91, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	93.3%