NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	7.5 [177]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +13.5%
Washington Wizards	93		Comeback	1.9 [575]		LVP	Toni Kukoc (CHI): -25.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles R. Jones	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	11	88%	0.18	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Randy Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	71%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Dickey Simpkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	58%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Kornel David	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ron Harper	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	12	54%	0.07	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.08
Andrew Lang	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keith Booth	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Cory Carr	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.13	-0.11	0.01	16	50%	-0.05	7	-0.21	4	100%	0.03

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	10	62%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	8	76%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	12	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	4	78%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.13,0.13,0.09	0.09	-0.11	0.19	-0.00	16	35%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.09	-0.01	10	41%	0.13	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randell Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.02	17	42%	-0.09	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	27.3	15.8	23.0	2.3	40.4	134.8
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +44.7%

CHI -24.7%

WAS +9.4%

WAS +13.1%

WAS +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	16.4	15.9	15.8	103.4	103.3	99.6
season	16.7	15.5		90.6	98.8
opponent	15.9	15.4		101.3	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.8	16.3	17.0	15.6	16.4
WAS	13.9	16.4	17.2	16.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Harper	71	73	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.49	15	-17	32	15.9	18.8	-2.96	16.2	14.9	1.30
Charles R. Jones	26	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.32	8	-10	18	16.5	16.4	0.15	17.2	15.4	1.81
Andrew Lang	17	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-1	0	17.2	16.3	0.92	16.4	15.8	0.64
Mark Bryant	36	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-2	2	16.1	16.7	-0.64	15.6	16.2	-0.51
Randy Brown	41	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-2	2	16.3	16.6	-0.31	16.1	15.8	0.25
Kornel David	13	13	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	10	-22	17.5	16.3	1.21	14.4	16.2	-1.81
Toni Kukoc	77	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.40	5	-7	12	16.4	16.5	-0.03	16.2	14.0	2.20
Dickey Simpkins	62	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-2	2	16.3	16.8	-0.48	15.6	16.5	-0.90
Keith Booth	18	19	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	5	-12	17.2	16.2	0.99	15.6	16.0	-0.45
Brent Barry	62	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-1	0	16.2	17.0	-0.75	15.7	16.5	-0.78
Cory Carr	17	17	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.05	-17	15	-32	18.8	15.9	2.96	14.9	16.2	-1.30

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rod Strickland	70	70	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.49	10	-8	18	15.2	18.6	-3.49	16.7	15.4	1.31
Calbert Cheaney	54	55	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.11	13	-11	24	15.9	15.9	0.03	17.1	15.4	1.66
Tracy Murray	45	45	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	-5	12	15.8	16.0	-0.18	17.0	15.8	1.16
Ben Wallace	64	62	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	-9	20	16.1	15.5	0.66	16.5	16.2	0.29
Otis Thorpe	25	25	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.00	13	-11	24	14.8	16.4	-1.57	18.4	15.6	2.81
Mitch Richmond	67	65	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.51	-11	13	-24	16.6	14.0	2.54	15.5	19.0	-3.42
Juwan Howard	70	66	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.55	-13	15	-28	16.3	14.6	1.71	15.7	18.6	-2.94
Jahidi White	4	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	5	-8	16.2	15.9	0.33	18.2	16.3	1.87
Terry Davis	14	13	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.12	-6	8	-14	14.2	16.2	-2.04	15.3	16.6	-1.32
Chris Whitney	26	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.00	-3	5	-8	17.8	15.2	2.58	16.2	16.5	-0.25
Randell Jackson	11	10	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.11	-8	10	-18	14.0	16.2	-2.20	14.7	16.7	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.43,0.55,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.67,0.88,0.86,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 92, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.79,0.69,0.84,1	91.6%
HOU 100, DAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.4,0.41,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.72,0.81,0.54,0.55,0.73,1	91.4%
SAS 91, LAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.57,0.73,1	91.2%