NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	100		Excitement	8.5 [189]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +30.1%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	1.6 [765]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -42.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.02	6	50%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	14	60%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Beverley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	117%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	8	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Patrick Patterson	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	7	64%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.02	13	53%	0.11	4	-0.14	10	60%	-0.17
Carlos Delfino	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.42	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.28,-0.42	-0.17	-0.26	-0.00	23	34%	-0.33	4	-0.10	12	75%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.3	0.30	0.07	0.22	-0.01	14	59%	0.32	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.06
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.01	4	91%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	9	52%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.02	13	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.07
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16,-0.16,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	14	44%	0.05	2	-0.06	13	92%	0.10
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	9	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	25%	-0.04	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.16	-0.01	8	20%	-0.24	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	32.0	16.8	31.2	3.4	43.4	154.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -8.8%

DAL +30.0%

DAL +8.9%

DAL +14.2%

DAL +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	13.2	14.3	15.4	96.2	100.0	104.1
season	14.2	14.5		107.9	104.3
opponent	15.6	15.4		105.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.0	13.8	14.6	12.7	13.2
DAL	13.7	15.6	14.2	14.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	49	48	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.22	15	-20	35	13.9	12.7	1.24	15.0	13.7	1.34
Toney Douglas	17	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-3	1	11.8	13.5	-1.69	14.5	14.3	0.26
Patrick Beverley	26	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-8	11	12.9	13.4	-0.47	15.5	13.9	1.57
Omer Asik	79	78	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-9	13	13.6	12.2	1.32	14.2	14.6	-0.32
Greg Smith	25	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	4	-13	12.2	13.6	-1.32	14.6	14.2	0.32
Jeremy Lin	69	68	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-1	-3	13.7	12.4	1.27	13.7	15.5	-1.81
Chandler Parsons	87	85	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-1	-3	13.2	13.4	-0.20	14.2	14.8	-0.66
Marcus Morris	32	34	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	9	-23	13.0	13.4	-0.39	15.1	14.0	1.10
James Harden	82	85	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.26	-6	1	-7	13.5	12.1	1.40	13.9	16.2	-2.33
Carlos Delfino	54	55	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	3	-11	12.5	14.1	-1.58	14.2	14.4	-0.16

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	38	36	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.38	17	-12	29	14.4	14.3	0.17	13.4	13.2	0.18
Dirk Nowitzki	70	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	0	5	15.2	12.5	2.79	13.6	12.5	1.14
Elton Brand	59	57	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.41	0	5	-5	14.6	13.9	0.68	12.8	13.8	-1.00
Jae Crowder	26	26	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	1	3	15.8	13.8	2.04	13.2	13.3	-0.12
Dahntay Jones	29	27	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	-1	7	14.2	14.3	-0.10	13.6	13.1	0.53
Vince Carter	42	41	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	-2	9	14.4	14.3	0.07	12.8	13.5	-0.76
O.J. Mayo	73	73	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.31	-5	10	-15	13.6	15.8	-2.20	13.0	13.9	-0.90
Shawn Marion	75	75	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	7	-9	13.6	16.2	-2.59	13.3	13.1	0.19
Chris Kaman	46	47	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.05	5	0	5	13.9	14.6	-0.68	13.8	12.8	1.00
Darren Collison	67	68	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.03	-12	17	-29	14.3	14.4	-0.17	13.2	13.4	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.4,0.41,0.53,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.72,0.81,0.54,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 87, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.64,0.68,0.72,1	92.1%
CHI 91, WAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.43,0.55,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.67,0.88,0.86,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.85,1	91.4%
ORL 88, UTA 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.55,0.46,0.68,0.58,1	91.4%