NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Excitement	9.3 [63]		MVP	Dean Garrett (MIN): +24.4%
Golden State Warriors	101		Comeback	2.2 [153]		LVP	Terry Cummings (GSW): -26.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dean Garrett	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.17	0.09	0.02	14	79%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	4	100%	0.19	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05	-0.07	0.11	-0.01	9	55%	0.18	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.03
Bobby Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	9	47%	0.00	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Tom Hammonds	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	5	8%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	14	31%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.07,-0.13	-0.05	-0.10	-0.02	22	54%	-0.03	4	-0.10	10	90%	0.07
Sam Mitchell	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	8	30%	-0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,-0.05,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.16	0.01	8	84%	0.39	3	-0.18	9	67%	-0.03
Tony Delk	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.12	-0.01	13	65%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	5	57%	-0.02	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	9	54%	-0.02	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.07
John Starks	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	0.01	-0.01	13	43%	0.09	5	-0.19	4	75%	0.01
Chris Mills	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	5	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.23	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	0.03	10	52%	-0.17	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.05
Terry Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.27	-0.27	-0.07	-0.20	-0.00	8	30%	-0.27	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.4	31.4	16.4	25.7	1.6	40.1	143.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +22.7%

MIN -3.9%

GSW +51.7%

MIN -24.3%

GSW +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	GSW	NBA	MIN	GSW	NBA
this game	15.1	15.7	15.8	106.5	107.4	99.6
season	15.0	15.9		98.6	95.1
opponent	15.5	15.9		98.1	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.4	15.8	14.3	15.0	15.1
GSW	12.9	15.5	15.7	19.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Jackson	22	21	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.00	5	-7	12	16.8	14.6	2.24	14.4	16.1	-1.63
Tom Hammonds	21	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	2	-6	15.4	15.0	0.35	12.5	16.7	-4.23
Joe Smith	57	57	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.31	8	-10	18	15.5	14.5	0.95	16.8	14.0	2.83
Sam Mitchell	40	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	3	-8	15.3	14.9	0.38	14.0	17.0	-3.00
Dean Garrett	71	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.39	2	-4	6	15.1	15.0	0.14	16.9	11.9	5.00
Anthony Peeler	69	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.50	3	-5	8	15.2	14.9	0.31	16.1	14.5	1.66
Malik Sealy	39	40	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	9	-20	14.5	15.6	-1.11	14.2	16.8	-2.55
Kevin Garnett	75	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-1	0	14.9	16.1	-1.24	15.9	14.7	1.26
Stephon Marbury	71	73	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.44	-7	5	-12	14.6	16.8	-2.24	16.1	14.4	1.63

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donyell Marshall	47	45	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.48	5	-3	8	13.9	17.5	-3.68	14.1	16.1	-1.97
Chris Mills	46	47	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	-11	24	15.5	15.9	-0.46	16.4	13.8	2.66
John Starks	71	68	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.44	-2	4	-6	15.8	15.5	0.28	14.6	16.5	-1.88
Muggsy Bogues	48	48	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	-7	16	14.5	17.0	-2.48	15.1	15.2	-0.09
Antawn Jamison	56	57	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.29	0	2	-2	15.3	16.3	-1.05	15.0	15.3	-0.32
Terry Cummings	31	31	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	-7	16	13.3	16.9	-3.53	14.5	15.4	-0.89
Erick Dampier	69	67	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.37	-4	6	-10	17.0	12.0	5.08	15.6	13.9	1.70
Tony Delk	56	56	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.35	-7	9	-16	17.2	13.4	3.86	14.9	15.5	-0.58
Jason Caffey	46	46	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.10	-13	15	-28	17.2	14.3	2.86	15.7	14.5	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 88, BKN 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.72,0.65,0.72,1	91.4%
DAL 94, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.92,1	91.2%
MIA 99, BOS 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.78,0.84,0.74,1	91.0%