NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	8.6 [186]		MVP	Al Jefferson (BOS): +31.8%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	2.6 [730]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -28.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.13	-0.03	0.15	0.00	3	62%	0.21	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.02
Rasual Butler	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	9	72%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	78%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	10	50%	0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Christian Laettner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,-0.08	0.06	-0.12	0.02	16	65%	-0.07	1	-0.01	20	50%	-0.16
Damon Jones	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	4	37%	-0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.28	-0.05	-0.25	-0.02	17	44%	-0.23	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.11	0.19	-0.02	10	79%	0.34	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.15	0.01	16	51%	0.20	4	-0.15	11	64%	-0.04
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	4	70%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.01	4	62%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	16	46%	-0.03	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.01	-0.01	11	43%	-0.02	3	-0.07	8	37%	-0.07
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	2	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	10	45%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.4	33.4	16.4	29.0	1.8	39.6	148.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +30.0%

MIA -8.2%

BOS +34.2%

MIA -8.2%

BOS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.5	106.5	108.6	104.0
season	15.7	14.4		107.9	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.5		104.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	14.0	13.6	17.1	15.4
BOS	12.0	17.9	15.2	18.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	74	74	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.35	11	-13	24	15.1	16.6	-1.52	15.1	17.4	-2.29
Christian Laettner	12	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	3	-8	15.7	15.3	0.44	15.2	15.7	-0.50
Alonzo Mourning	28	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-2	2	14.6	15.7	-1.09	17.0	15.0	2.01
Rasual Butler	49	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-4	6	15.1	15.7	-0.56	16.6	14.6	2.03
Eddie Jones	36	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-6	10	16.2	14.8	1.44	15.8	15.5	0.32
Dwyane Wade	85	84	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.39	5	-7	12	15.5	13.6	1.90	15.1	20.4	-5.36
Shandon Anderson	16	16	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.10	-15	13	-28	13.3	15.8	-2.48	14.9	15.7	-0.80
Shaquille O'Neal	65	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	0	-2	15.7	14.6	1.09	15.0	17.0	-2.01
Udonis Haslem	81	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.46	3	-5	8	15.3	15.7	-0.44	15.7	15.2	0.50
Keyon Dooling	19	19	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.08	-13	11	-24	16.6	15.1	1.52	17.4	15.1	2.29

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	19	20	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.57	4	-2	6	15.7	15.6	0.17	14.9	15.5	-0.53
Ricky Davis	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	1	0	16.5	11.2	5.33	15.0	16.9	-1.93
Marcus Banks	20	20	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	-10	22	17.3	15.1	2.23	16.3	15.1	1.25
Paul Pierce	69	71	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.50	-6	8	-14	15.6	15.7	-0.09	15.6	14.5	1.07
Al Jefferson	31	32	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.10	6	-4	10	16.4	15.2	1.18	16.1	15.0	1.16
Mark Blount	21	22	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.05	7	-5	12	15.2	15.7	-0.47	16.2	15.1	1.13
Tony Allen	33	33	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.07	6	-4	10	12.8	17.1	-4.36	15.8	15.1	0.61
Delonte West	7	6	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	-1	4	19.0	15.3	3.67	14.7	15.4	-0.75
Gary Payton	73	73	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.34	-10	12	-22	15.1	17.3	-2.23	15.1	16.3	-1.25
Antoine Walker	71	70	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.27	-8	10	-18	15.4	16.3	-0.94	14.7	17.3	-2.58
Raef LaFrentz	44	42	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.02	-5	7	-12	15.5	15.7	-0.15	15.6	15.2	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.78,0.84,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 78, SAS 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.91,1	92.8%
IND 85, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.79,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.94,0.98,0.99,1	91.9%
DAL 94, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.92,1	91.9%