NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	82		Excitement	8.3 [117]		MVP	Dell Curry (MIL): +15.7%
Orlando Magic	85		Comeback	9.6 [89]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIL): -48.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	5	110%	0.23	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	64%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Glenn Robinson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.10	-0.01	17	44%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,-0.09	-0.00	-0.08	0.01	18	54%	0.00	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	5	33%	-0.00	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.48	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.48	-0.17	-0.31	0.01	13	31%	-0.08	5	-0.40	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	20	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.09
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.11	-0.00	10	60%	-0.05	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.19
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	6	37%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	9	32%	-0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	13	41%	-0.13	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.8	27.2	16.4	21.5	2.3	36.5	128.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -18.0%

ORL +12.1%

ORL +21.2%

ORL +35.5%

MIL -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.3	16.5	15.8	90.1	94.4	99.6
season	15.8	16.1		102.4	98.0
opponent	15.6	16.4		95.7	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.5	16.0	15.5	18.0	15.3
ORL	14.7	19.1	16.5	16.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	51	49	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.11	1	-4	5	15.0	15.8	-0.81	16.6	16.5	0.09
Armen Gilliam	37	37	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.08	1	-4	5	16.9	14.2	2.74	17.4	15.9	1.47
Michael Curry	33	32	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.12	-1	-2	1	15.2	15.4	-0.26	16.0	16.8	-0.84
Robert Traylor	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-1	-1	15.0	15.3	-0.35	14.5	16.7	-2.21
Tyrone Hill	59	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-5	7	14.4	17.0	-2.55	17.7	14.5	3.18
Dell Curry	33	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	0	-3	15.5	15.2	0.21	15.6	17.1	-1.48
Ray Allen	62	63	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.48	-1	-2	1	15.1	15.8	-0.75	15.9	18.0	-2.13
Glenn Robinson	65	65	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.52	-2	-1	-1	15.3	15.3	0.02	16.8	15.7	1.10
Terrell Brandon	67	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.50	-4	1	-5	15.4	15.2	0.15	16.5	16.6	-0.13
Vinny Del Negro	40	40	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.45	-6	3	-9	16.0	14.8	1.17	16.1	16.8	-0.65

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	79	79	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.47	10	-7	17	16.2	18.7	-2.52	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Darrell Armstrong	47	49	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.44	9	-6	15	16.1	16.9	-0.76	16.3	14.1	2.23
Horace Grant	66	66	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.48	6	-3	9	17.0	15.1	1.95	14.8	16.7	-1.88
Bo Outlaw	71	70	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.48	-1	4	-5	16.4	16.9	-0.49	14.9	16.7	-1.81
Matt Harpring	39	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	0	3	15.4	17.4	-1.99	15.8	14.9	0.93
Nick Anderson	63	62	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	9	-15	17.3	14.7	2.58	15.5	14.9	0.57
Michael Doleac	29	31	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	2	-1	15.4	17.0	-1.67	15.3	15.3	0.01
Derek Strong	16	17	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	7	-11	19.5	15.9	3.64	17.7	14.8	2.94
Ike Austin	40	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	6	-9	16.4	16.6	-0.25	14.0	16.3	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.28,0.32,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 114, SEA 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.25,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.25,0.32,0.31,0.12,0.22,0.36,0.28,0.31,0.28,1	92.1%
SAS 95, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.19,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.2,0.43,1	92.1%
POR 107, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	91.8%